Polonia Bytom
vs
Odra Opole
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Polonia Bytom 1–0 Odra Opole
The model makes it 47% Polonia Bytom, 29% draw, 24% Odra Opole — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Polonia Bytom 1.48, Odra Opole 0.91.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Polonia Bytom's rating is built from 45 Polish I Liga matches and Odra Opole's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Polonia Bytom are 10th on 15 points from 11 games; Odra Opole are 13th on 12 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Polonia Bytom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Chrobry Głogów.
- Odra Opole have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Ruch Chorzów.
- Last 5 meetings: Polonia Bytom 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Odra Opole 0–2 Polonia Bytom.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Polonia Bytom vs Odra Opole
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polonia Bytom at 47% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Polonia Bytom vs Odra Opole
Polonia Bytom
- W3-2Chrobry Głogów17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 October 2026
- D0-0Ruch Chorzów18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Polonia Warszawa11 September 2026
- D0-0Podbeskidzie6 September 2026
Odra Opole
- L0-3away to Ruch Chorzów16 October 2026
- W1-0Miedz Legnica11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nieciecza19 September 2026
- L0-1Stal Rzeszów13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Stal Mielec5 September 2026
What these results say
- Polonia Bytom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Odra Opole failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Odra Opole conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Odra Opole had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Polonia Bytom | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Polonia Bytom vs Odra Opole
- 26 April 2026Odra Opole 0–2 Polonia BytomI Liga
- 19 October 2025Polonia Bytom 0–0 Odra OpoleI Liga
- 4 February 2023Odra Opole 1–1 Polonia BytomFriendlies Clubs
- 8 July 2022Odra Opole 0–2 Polonia BytomFriendlies Clubs
- 22 January 2022Odra Opole 7–1 Polonia BytomFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Polonia Bytom carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.21 for Odra Opole. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Polonia Bytom and 0.91 for Odra Opole. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Polonia Bytom rate 0.62 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Odra Opole rate 0.37 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Polonia Bytom a 1.3% chance of the title and Odra Opole 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polonia Bytom the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Polonia Bytom against 0.91 for Odra Opole. Polonia Bytom's attack/defence rating is 0.62/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.47 for Odra Opole.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Polonia Bytom at home · Odra Opole away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Polonia Bytom 11, Odra Opole 11.
Polonia Bytom score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Odra Opole have let in 0 there.
Odra Opole score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Polonia Bytom have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Polonia Bytom
- vs Lechia Gdansk8 Nov · I Ligawin 31%
- at Stal Rzeszów21 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
- at Miedz Legnica28 Nov · I Ligawin 24%
- vs Nieciecza5 Dec · I Ligawin 34%
Odra Opole
- vs Unia Skierniewice6 Nov · I Ligawin 41%
- at Lechia Gdansk21 Nov · I Ligawin 15%
- vs Polonia Warszawa28 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki5 Dec · I Ligawin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.