ŁKS Łódź
vs
Polonia Warszawa
I Liga prediction
Our model says: ŁKS Łódź 1–0 Polonia Warszawa
The model makes it 44% ŁKS Łódź, 28% draw, 28% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: ŁKS Łódź 1.52, Polonia Warszawa 1.12.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. ŁKS Łódź's rating is built from 46 Polish I Liga matches and Polonia Warszawa's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ŁKS Łódź are 6th on 18 points from 11 games; Polonia Warszawa are 2nd on 20 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- ŁKS Łódź have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Podbeskidzie.
- Polonia Warszawa are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
- Last 6 meetings: ŁKS Łódź 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 March 2026, ended Polonia Warszawa 0–1 ŁKS Łódź.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ŁKS Łódź at 44% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa
ŁKS Łódź
- W1-0Podbeskidzie18 October 2026
- L0-2Ruch Chorzów11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arka Gdynia6 September 2026
Polonia Warszawa
- W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026
- W2-0Chrobry Głogów19 September 2026
- D2-2Polonia Bytom11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Stal Rzeszów5 September 2026
What these results say
- ŁKS Łódź conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ŁKS Łódź had two goals or fewer.
- Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa
- 9 March 2026Polonia Warszawa 0–1 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
- 23 August 2025ŁKS Łódź 2–2 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 17 May 2025Polonia Warszawa 0–1 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
- 8 November 2024ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 17 November 2023ŁKS Łódź 2–0 Polonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs
- 14 July 2023ŁKS Łódź 6–2 Polonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
ŁKS Łódź carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.34 for Polonia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.12 for Polonia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ŁKS Łódź rate 0.56 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Polonia Warszawa rate 0.60 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Polonia Warszawa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ŁKS Łódź a 4.3% chance of the title and Polonia Warszawa 8.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ŁKS Łódź the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź against 1.12 for Polonia Warszawa. ŁKS Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.67 for Polonia Warszawa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ŁKS Łódź at home · Polonia Warszawa away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: ŁKS Łódź 11, Polonia Warszawa 11.
ŁKS Łódź score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Polonia Warszawa have let in 2 there.
Polonia Warszawa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); ŁKS Łódź have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
ŁKS Łódź
- vs Stal Rzeszów8 Nov · I Ligawin 55%
- at Miedz Legnica21 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- vs Lechia Gdansk28 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
- at Unia Skierniewice5 Dec · I Ligawin 38%
Polonia Warszawa
- at Warta Poznań7 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- vs Stal Mielec21 Nov · I Ligawin 59%
- at Odra Opole28 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
- vs Podbeskidzie5 Dec · I Ligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.