Blackburn
vs
Stoke City
Championship prediction
Our model says: Blackburn 1–0 Stoke City
The model makes it 40% Blackburn, 29% draw, 31% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Blackburn 1.39, Stoke City 1.14.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Blackburn's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Stoke City's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,245 matches.
Key facts
- Blackburn are 10th on 15 points from 11 games; Stoke City are 6th on 19 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Blackburn have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to West Brom.
- Stoke City have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Derby.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Stoke City 1–1 Blackburn.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Blackburn vs Stoke City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Blackburn at 40% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Blackburn vs Stoke City
Blackburn
- L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City13 October 2026
- W2-1Cardiff10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
- W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
Stoke City
- W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026
- L2-3Middlesbrough13 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bolton10 October 2026
- W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
What these results say
- Blackburn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Stoke City
Blackburn and Stoke City have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Stoke City on 11 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Stoke City | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Apr 2026
ChampionshipStoke City 1–1 Blackburn - 4 Oct 2025
ChampionshipBlackburn 1–1 Stoke City - 12 Mar 2025
ChampionshipStoke City 1–0 Blackburn - 6 Nov 2024
ChampionshipBlackburn 0–2 Stoke City - 10 Feb 2024
ChampionshipBlackburn 3–1 Stoke City - 25 Nov 2023
ChampionshipStoke City 0–3 Blackburn
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 0.67 | 1.31 |
| Stoke City | 0.73 | 1.38 |
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Stoke City
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen61
- O. Afolayan42
Stoke City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Blackburn carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.53 for Stoke City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Blackburn and 1.14 for Stoke City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Blackburn rate 0.67 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stoke City rate 0.73 and 1.38.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stoke City, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Blackburn a 0.2% chance of the title and Stoke City 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Blackburn the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Blackburn against 1.14 for Stoke City. Blackburn's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.38 for Stoke City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Blackburn at home · Stoke City away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BlackburnStoke City
Blackburn are 10th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Stoke City are 6th after 11 (between 3rd and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Blackburn 11, Stoke City 11.
Blackburn score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Stoke City have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Blackburn
- vs West Ham7 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- at Burnley22 Nov · Championshipwin 22%
- at Watford25 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
Stoke City
- at Portsmouth7 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Birmingham21 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Millwall25 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.