Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Ludogorets 2-2 Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Ludogorets, 23% draw, 16% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–0 Ludogorets (23 Jul) →
Hapoel Tel Aviv went through 4–2 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 61% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 39H. BonmannG
- 17SonD
- 3A. NedyalkovD
- 15E. KurtulusD
- 27Vinicius NogueiraD
- 26F. KalocM
- 14P. StanicM
- 18I. ChochevM
- 37B. TekpeteyM
- 9K. DuahF
- 7A. Salido TajeroF
- 1S. PadtG
- 2J. AnderssonD
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 20A. CamaraM
- 24O. VerdonD
- 25E. RodriguezM
- 29E. BileF
- 40A. MarinovM
- 42S. ShishkovD
- 22A. Tzur
- 97M. CocoD
- 5F. MayemboD
- 4ChicoD
- 16D. LeidnerD
- 98FalcaoM
- 6A. KraevM
- 11S. TurielM
- 51O. AltmanF
- 10X. SilvaF
- 9E. BoatengF
- 1D. BenyaminiG
- 33Y. BazdogG
- 8Y. FerberM
- 14E. Y. KancepolskyM
- 15R. Alkoukin
- 18T. ArchelD
- 20O. IsraelovD
- 21S. PivenD
- 23A. LemkinM
Form going into Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ludogorets
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse27 July 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Tel Aviv23 July 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv18 July 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Ludogorets23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ludogorets and Hapoel Tel Aviv in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ludogorets | First League | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 26 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 19 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: First League · Ligat Ha'al
Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 23 July 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–0 LudogoretsUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Ludogorets and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ludogorets
GoalsAssists
- B. Tekpetey20
- Rwan Cruz12
Hapoel Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- E. Boateng32
- D. Owusu31
- O. Altman30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ludogorets and Hapoel Tel Aviv drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ludogorets at 61% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: E. Boateng 16' for Hapoel Tel Aviv, B. Tekpetey 47' for Ludogorets, A. Salido Tajero 54' for Ludogorets, E. Boateng 58' for Hapoel Tel Aviv.