Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Ludogorets 2-2 Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Ludogorets, 23% draw, 16% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 61% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 39H. BonmannG
- 17SonD
- 3A. NedyalkovD
- 15E. KurtulusD
- 27Vinicius NogueiraD
- 26F. KalocM
- 14P. StanicM
- 18I. ChochevM
- 37B. TekpeteyM
- 9K. DuahF
- 7A. Salido TajeroF
- 1S. PadtG
- 2J. AnderssonD
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 20A. CamaraM
- 24O. VerdonD
- 25E. RodriguezM
- 29E. BileF
- 40A. MarinovM
- 42S. ShishkovD
- 22A. Tzur
- 97M. CocoD
- 5F. MayemboD
- 4ChicoD
- 16D. LeidnerD
- 98FalcaoM
- 6A. KraevM
- 11S. TurielM
- 51O. AltmanF
- 10X. SilvaF
- 9E. BoatengF
- 1D. BenyaminiG
- 33Y. BazdogG
- 8Y. FerberM
- 14E. Y. KancepolskyM
- 15R. Alkoukin
- 18T. ArchelD
- 20O. IsraelovD
- 21S. PivenD
- 23A. LemkinM
Form going into Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ludogorets
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse27 July 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Tel Aviv23 July 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv18 July 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- W2-0Ludogorets23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ludogorets and Hapoel Tel Aviv in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ludogorets | First League | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: First League · Ligat Ha'al
Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 30 July 2026Ludogorets 0–1 Hapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference League
- 23 July 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–0 LudogoretsUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Ludogorets and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ludogorets
No player in First League's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- D. Owusu2 goals
- E. Boateng1 goals1 assists
- R. Alkokin1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.