30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Noah vs Zimbru UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Abovyan City Stadium, Abovyan
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Noah 2-1 Zimbru.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% FC Noah, 16% draw, 9% Zimbru — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Noah at 75% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Noah98%Draw2%Zimbru0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

T. Oshima
29'
⚽G. Manvelyanassist: M. Jakolis
31'
⚽G. Sangareassist: M. Gonzalez
47'
51'
Matteo Amoroso
52'
🔁V. Stinaout: R. Rosario
55'
T. Ceijas
62'
🔁T. Ceijasout: T. Butucel
63'
🔁K. Berkeleyout: Jonathas
🔁H. Hambardzumyanout: E. Boakye
66'
🔁T. Oshimaout: A. Khamoyan
66'
76'
⚽Jonathasassist: S. Bitca
🔁G. Manvelyanout: V. Costache
76'
🔁M. Gonzalezout: M. Lazetic
77'
80'
A. Gutium
84'
🔁Caio Dantasout: V. Raileanu
🔁Helder Ferreiraout: B. Oddei
90+3'

Line-ups

FC Noah 4-1-4-1
  • 99Dani FigueiraG
  • 19Hovhannes HambardzumyanD
  • 39Nathanaël SaintiniD
  • 4Stone Muzalimoja MamboD
  • 33David SualeheD
  • 14Takuto OshimaM
  • 7Hélder FerreiraM
  • 17Gustavo SangaréM
  • 10Gor ManvelyanM
  • 44Marin JakolišM
  • 9Mario GonzálezF
Substitutes
  • 6Eric BoakyeD
  • 23Aram KhamoyanM
  • 29Arthur Luiz ConeglianG
  • 77Davit DavtyanG
  • 3Sergey MuradyanD
  • 5Mark AvetisyanD
  • 21Michael PavlovićD
  • 20Valentin CostacheM
  • 98Brian OddeiM
Coach: Sandro Perkovic
Zimbru 4-3-3
  • 12Artem OdintsovG
  • 18Alexandru GutiumD
  • 4Cristian GontaD
  • 3Kevin BerkeleyD
  • 35Nikolay ZolotovD
  • 23MarcelloD
  • 8Matteo AmorosoM
  • 24Thiago CeijasM
  • 98Victor StinaM
  • 73Ștefan BîtcaM
  • 7Caio DantasM
Substitutes
  • 14Rayvien RosarioF
  • 17Tudor ButucelM
  • 11JonathasM
  • 88Ivan DokićG
  • 92Cristian SîrghiG
  • 44Sergiu UngureanuD
  • 10Eugeniu CociucM
  • 20Vlad RaileanuM
  • 22Ahmed BonnahM
Coach: Oleksandr Poklonskyi

Form going into FC Noah vs Zimbru

FC Noah

  • D1-1away to Zimbru23 July 2026

Zimbru

  • D1-1FC Noah23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FC Noah vs Zimbru

  • 30 July 2026FC Noah 2–1 ZimbruUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Zimbru 1–1 FC NoahUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.