30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Noah vs Zimbru UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Abovyan City Stadium, Abovyan
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Noah 2-1 Zimbru.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% FC Noah, 16% draw, 9% Zimbru — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Zimbru 1–1 FC Noah (23 Jul) →

FC Noah went through 3–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Noah at 75% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Noah98%Draw2%Zimbru0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

T. Oshima
29'
⚽G. Manvelyanassist: M. Jakolis
31'
⚽G. Sangareassist: M. Gonzalez
47'
51'
Matteo Amoroso
52'
🔁V. Stinaout: R. Rosario
55'
T. Ceijas
62'
🔁T. Ceijasout: T. Butucel
63'
🔁K. Berkeleyout: Jonathas
🔁H. Hambardzumyanout: E. Boakye
66'
🔁T. Oshimaout: A. Khamoyan
66'
76'
⚽Jonathasassist: S. Bitca
🔁G. Manvelyanout: V. Costache
76'
🔁M. Gonzalezout: M. Lazetic
77'
80'
A. Gutium
84'
🔁Caio Dantasout: V. Raileanu
🔁Helder Ferreiraout: B. Oddei
90+3'

Line-ups

FC Noah 4-1-4-1
  • 99Dani FigueiraG
  • 19Hovhannes HambardzumyanD
  • 39Nathanaël SaintiniD
  • 4Stone Muzalimoja MamboD
  • 33David SualeheD
  • 14Takuto OshimaM
  • 7Hélder FerreiraM
  • 17Gustavo SangaréM
  • 10Gor ManvelyanM
  • 44Marin JakolišM
  • 9Mario GonzálezF
Substitutes
  • 6Eric BoakyeD
  • 23Aram KhamoyanM
  • 29Arthur Luiz ConeglianG
  • 77Davit DavtyanG
  • 3Sergey MuradyanD
  • 5Mark AvetisyanD
  • 21Michael PavlovićD
  • 20Valentin CostacheM
  • 98Brian OddeiM
Coach: Sandro Perkovic
Zimbru 4-3-3
  • 12Artem OdintsovG
  • 18Alexandru GutiumD
  • 4Cristian GontaD
  • 3Kevin BerkeleyD
  • 35Nikolay ZolotovD
  • 23MarcelloD
  • 8Matteo AmorosoM
  • 24Thiago CeijasM
  • 98Victor StinaM
  • 73Ștefan BîtcaM
  • 7Caio DantasM
Substitutes
  • 14Rayvien RosarioF
  • 17Tudor ButucelM
  • 11JonathasM
  • 88Ivan DokićG
  • 92Cristian SîrghiG
  • 44Sergiu UngureanuD
  • 10Eugeniu CociucM
  • 20Vlad RaileanuM
  • 22Ahmed BonnahM
Coach: Oleksandr Poklonskyi

Form going into FC Noah vs Zimbru

FC Noah

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Zimbru23 July 2026

Zimbru

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1FC Noah23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Noah vs Zimbru

  • 23 July 2026Zimbru 1–1 FC NoahUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

FC Noah beat Zimbru 2–1. The model had made a win for FC Noah its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: G. Manvelyan 31' for FC Noah, G. Sangare 47' for FC Noah, Jonathas 76' for Zimbru.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.