Regular Season - 36 · 21 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Palmeiras vs Flamengo Serie A prediction

Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos

Our model says: Palmeiras 1–0 Flamengo

The model makes it 46% Palmeiras, 28% draw, 26% Flamengo — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.50, Flamengo 1.00.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Palmeiras's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Flamengo's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.

Key facts

  • Palmeiras are 2nd on 73 points from 34 games; Flamengo are top on 76 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 6-1 win at home to Remo.
  • Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Gremio.
  • Last 6 meetings: Flamengo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Flamengo 0–3 Palmeiras.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Palmeiras vs Flamengo

50%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Palmeiras win Draw Flamengo win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 2–09%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Palmeiras first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Palmeiras at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Palmeiras vs Flamengo

Palmeiras

Serie A

  • W6-1Remo5 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Santos28 October 2026
  • W2-0RB Bragantino24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Atletico Paranaense17 October 2026
  • W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026

Flamengo

Serie A

  • W3-1Gremio4 November 2026
  • W4-1away to Vasco da Gama29 October 2026
  • W3-2Atletico Mineiro26 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Bahia18 October 2026
  • W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Palmeiras won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Flamengo won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Flamengo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Palmeiras34211036223+3973
1Flamengo3423747129+4276

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Palmeiras

Chance to win the league · 23% today

Win 38%
Draw 9%
Defeat 1%

Flamengo

Chance to win the league · 77% today

Win 99%
Draw 91%
Defeat 62%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Flamengo

  • 24 May 2026Flamengo 0–3 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 29 November 2025Palmeiras 0–1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 19 October 2025Flamengo 3–2 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 25 May 2025Palmeiras 0–2 FlamengoSerie A
  • 11 August 2024Flamengo 1–1 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 7 August 2024Palmeiras 1–0 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil

The full Palmeiras vs Flamengo record →

Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Flamengo

Palmeiras

GoalsAssists

  • J. López107
  • Maurício101

Flamengo

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro206
  • Samuel Lino129

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Flamengo (first, with Palmeiras second), while our numbers lean to Palmeiras. Palmeiras rate 1.15 in attack and 0.67 in defence, Flamengo 1.33 and 0.82 (lower is better in defence), so Palmeiras have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palmeiras a 23% chance of the title and Flamengo 77%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Palmeiras Flamengo
1.15 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.33
0.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.82
1.50 Model expected goals (this match) 1.00

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Palmeiras against 1.00 for Flamengo. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/0.82 for Flamengo.

Palmeiras carry a model rating of 7.13 against 7.09 for Flamengo. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 46% for Palmeiras to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Palmeiras to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Palmeiras's ratings change nothing and Flamengo's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage45%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level44%−1
  4. Palmeiras's ratings44%±0
  5. Flamengo's ratings46%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

PalmeirasFlamengo
34Matches34
21W 10D 3LRecord23W 7D 4L
62 1.8 per gameGoals scored71 2.1 per game
23 0.7 per gameGoals conceded29 0.9 per game
16 of 34Clean sheets14 of 34
5 of 34Failed to score2 of 34
3 of 5Penalties scored5 of 5
77 2.3 per gameYellow cards70 2.1 per game
6Red cards7
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape4-2-3-1 34×

Palmeiras at home · Flamengo away

17Played17
13W 3D 1LRecord10W 4D 3L
36–11Goals for – against36–16
7 of 17Clean sheets6 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Palmeiras 34, Flamengo 34.

Palmeiras scored 12119999
Flamengo conceded 334649

Palmeiras score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Flamengo have let in 3 there.

Flamengo scored 13711131215
Palmeiras conceded 217737

Flamengo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Palmeiras have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Palmeiras

Flamengo

  • at Coritiba29 Nov · Serie Awin 57%
  • vs Chapecoense3 Dec · Serie Awin 84%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.