Bahia
vs
Coritiba
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Bahia 2–0 Coritiba
The model makes it 57% Bahia, 24% draw, 19% Coritiba — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Bahia 2.00, Coritiba 0.95.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Bahia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bahia's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Coritiba's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.
Key facts
- Bahia are 6th on 53 points from 34 games; Coritiba are 12th on 42 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Bahia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Cruzeiro.
- Coritiba have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Internacional.
- Last 6 meetings: Bahia 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 May 2026, ended Coritiba 3–2 Bahia.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bahia vs Coritiba
Has the model earned this number?
Bahia at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bahia vs Coritiba
Bahia
Serie A
- L2-3away to Cruzeiro6 November 2026
- W3-2Sao Paulo29 October 2026
- D1-1away to Santos25 October 2026
- L0-3Flamengo18 October 2026
- W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026
Coritiba
Serie A
- L0-1away to Internacional4 November 2026
- W2-0Vitoria31 October 2026
- L0-1Gremio26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro17 October 2026
- D1-1Botafogo12 October 2026
What these results say
- Bahia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bahia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba had two goals or fewer.
- Coritiba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 53 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bahia
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
Coritiba
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 10% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Coritiba
- 25 May 2026Coritiba 3–2 BahiaSerie A
- 14 September 2023Coritiba 2–4 BahiaSerie A
- 7 May 2023Bahia 3–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 16 November 2020Coritiba 1–2 BahiaSerie A
- 12 August 2020Bahia 1–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 30 September 2017Bahia 1–1 CoritibaSerie A
Leading scorers: Bahia and Coritiba
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba112
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bahia the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Bahia against 0.95 for Coritiba. Bahia's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.34 for Coritiba.
How the model reaches 57% for Bahia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bahia to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Bahia's ratings add 7 points and Coritiba's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Bahia's ratings52%+7
- Coritiba's ratings57%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bahia at home · Coritiba away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Bahia 34, Coritiba 34.
Bahia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (16 goals); Coritiba have let in 5 there.
Coritiba score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Bahia have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Bahia
- at Botafogo29 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- vs Atletico Mineiro3 Dec · Serie Awin 44%
Coritiba
- vs Flamengo29 Nov · Serie Awin 19%
- at Palmeiras3 Dec · Serie Awin 9%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.