23 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadion Poljud, Split
Full time2 – 0

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 Pafos.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% HNK Hajduk Split, 46% draw, 30% Pafos — fair odds of 4.17, 2.17 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Pafos v HNK Hajduk Split, 30 Jul →

Pafos went through on penalties, after 2–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Adrion Pajaziti
4'
55'
Nikolas Ioannou
⚽M. Sego
56'
63'
🔁D. Goldarout: Bruno
63'
🔁Pepeout: A. Brito
64'
Alexandre Brito
⚽D. Melnjakassist: M. Acapandie
64'
74'
🔁V. Dragomirout: D. Quina
74'
🔁I. Sunjicout: Guga
🔁M. Segoout: M. Livaja
77'
🔁D. de Almeidaout: A. del Moral
77'
🔁D. Maresicout: M. Skelin
77'
🔁D. Melnjakout: A. Guram
83'
Adam Huram
87'
Alberto del Moral
88'
🔁S. Hrgovicout: R. Raci
90+2'

Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos

45%Possession55%
8Shots14
2On target3
8Corners7

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 21R. PukstasM
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 28R. BrajkovicM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 1I. IvusicG
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 19E. BrrutiM
  • 20A. del MoralM
  • 26A. GuramM
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia
Pafos 3-4-3
  • 99R. MajeckiG
  • 5D. GoldarD
  • 4David LuizD
  • 3S. MmaeeD
  • 11JajaM
  • 88PepeM
  • 26I. SunjicM
  • 14N. IoannouD
  • 30V. DragomirM
  • 18LeleF
  • 20BielF
Substitutes
  • 71M. PapastylianouG
  • 82P. PetrouG
  • 7BrunoD
  • 8D. QuinaM
  • 12K. SemaM
  • 42G. MichaelM
  • 47M. Mammadov
  • 50A. BritoM
  • 60C. Evzona
Coach: Albert Celades

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split beat Pafos 2–0. The model had leaned towards a draw at 46% and given a win for HNK Hajduk Split 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Sego 56' for HNK Hajduk Split, D. Melnjak 64' for HNK Hajduk Split.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.