23 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadion Poljud, Split
Full time2 – 0

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 Pafos.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% HNK Hajduk Split, 46% draw, 30% Pafos — fair odds of 4.17, 2.17 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Adrion Pajaziti
4'
55'
Nikolas Ioannou
⚽M. Sego
56'
63'
🔁D. Goldarout: Bruno
63'
🔁Pepeout: A. Brito
64'
Alexandre Brito
⚽D. Melnjakassist: M. Acapandie
64'
74'
🔁V. Dragomirout: D. Quina
74'
🔁I. Sunjicout: Guga
🔁M. Segoout: M. Livaja
77'
🔁D. de Almeidaout: A. del Moral
77'
🔁D. Maresicout: M. Skelin
77'
🔁D. Melnjakout: A. Guram
83'
Adam Huram
87'
Alberto del Moral
88'
🔁S. Hrgovicout: R. Raci
90+2'

Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos

45%Possession55%
8Shots14
2On target3
8Corners7

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 21R. PukstasM
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 28R. BrajkovicM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 1I. IvusicG
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 19E. BrrutiM
  • 20A. del MoralM
  • 26A. GuramM
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia
Pafos 3-4-3
  • 99R. MajeckiG
  • 5D. GoldarD
  • 4David LuizD
  • 3S. MmaeeD
  • 11JajaM
  • 88PepeM
  • 26I. SunjicM
  • 14N. IoannouD
  • 30V. DragomirM
  • 18LeleF
  • 20BielF
Substitutes
  • 71M. PapastylianouG
  • 82P. PetrouG
  • 7BrunoD
  • 8D. QuinaM
  • 12K. SemaM
  • 42G. MichaelM
  • 47M. Mammadov
  • 50A. BritoM
  • 60C. Evzona
Coach: Albert Celades

HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNL7511165+1116

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Pafos has not started the league season yet. Full tables: HNL · UEFA Europa Conference League

Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos

  • 23 July 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 PafosUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos

HNK Hajduk Split

  • M. Šego4 goals
  • M. Livaja3 goals
  • M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists

Pafos

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.