20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Elbasan Arena, Elbasani
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Tirana 1-1 Pafos.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Dinamo Tirana, 22% draw, 60% Pafos — fair odds of 5.56, 4.55 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pafos at 60% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Tirana3%Draw91%Pafos6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Lelê
Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji
30'
38'
⚽David Luiz (pen)
39'
Domingos Quina
46'
🔁David Luizout: S. Mmaee
57'
🔁I. Sunjicout: Guga
57'
🔁D. Quinaout: A. Brito
57'
🔁N. Moumi Ngamaleuout: J. Correia
🔁M. Ayodejiout: A. Alhassan
76'
🔁E. Qardakuout: D. Metaj
76'
🔁K. Qefalijaout: I. Manellari
76'
🔁H. Berishaout: D. Fadairo
76'
⚽D. Fadairoassist: A. Alhassan
79'
Aldo Teqja
81'
Bruno Dita
81'
82'
⚽Lele (pen)
Lorenco Vila
85'
88'
🔁Leleout: Anderson Silva
🔁U. Ismailiout: B. Aniekan James
90'

Match stats — Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos

46%Possession54%
4On target4
3Corners1

Line-ups

Dinamo Tirana 4-3-3
  • 77A. TeqjaG
  • 2U. Ismaili
  • 22B. DitaD
  • 27N. AlijiD
  • 13F. PerndrecaD
  • 20M. AyodejiM
  • 10L. VilaM
  • 21K. QefalijaM
  • 29H. BerishaF
  • 11R. Silva-RichardsF
  • 8E. QardakuM
Substitutes
  • 1E. SaliG
  • 97T. Kiri
  • 5E. HoxhallariD
  • 6A. AlhassanM
  • 7A. AjzerajM
  • 16N. BletaM
  • 18D. MetajF
  • 24F. Farruku
  • 28I. ManellariM
Coach: Ilir Daja
Pafos 4-3-3
  • 99R. MajeckiG
  • 7BrunoD
  • 5D. GoldarD
  • 4David LuizD
  • 14N. IoannouD
  • 88PepeM
  • 26I. SunjicM
  • 8D. QuinaM
  • 13N. Moumi NgamaleuM
  • 18LeleF
  • 20BielF
Substitutes
  • 71M. PapastylianouG
  • 82P. PetrouG
  • 3S. MmaeeD
  • 6GugaM
  • 12K. SemaM
  • 33Anderson SilvaF
  • 42G. MichaelM
  • 50A. BritoM
  • 60C. Efzona
Coach: Ricardo Sa Pinto

Form going into Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos

Dinamo Tirana

  • W4-0Auda13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Auda4 August 2026
  • W3-0Aluminij30 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Aluminij23 July 2026

Pafos

  • D3-3Red Bull Salzburg13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg6 August 2026
  • W2-0HNK Hajduk Split30 July 2026
  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Dinamo Tirana scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pafos failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pafos conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Pafos had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.