Dinamo Tirana
vs
Pafos
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 18% Dinamo Tirana, 22% draw, 60% Pafos — fair odds of 5.56, 4.55 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dinamo Tirana 1.05, Pafos 2.06.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Dinamo Tirana carry a model rating of 5.98 against 6.47 for Pafos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dinamo Tirana L-D-W-L-W; Pafos L-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Dinamo Tirana and 2.06 for Pafos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Tirana rate 0.41 in attack and 2.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pafos rate 0.63 and 1.35.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dinamo Tirana against 2.06 for Pafos. Dinamo Tirana's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.35 for Pafos.