Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 FC Lugano.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 21% draw, 47% FC Lugano — fair odds of 3.13, 4.76 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano
Line-ups
- 22O. MelikaG
- 6T. AsanteD
- 5M. CamaraD
- 13R. ShlomoD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 42D. PeretzM
- 28I. SissokhoM
- 36I. ShaharM
- 77O. DavidaF
- 9E. SoklerF
- 29H. VarelaF
- 51S. SaadiaG
- 90R. MishpatiG
- 21N. Ben HarushD
- 41I. Ben HamoD
- 25S. RosenD
- 18D. GlazerM
- 30I. NoyM
- 59L. AssrasM
- 60I. Ben SimonF
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 17L. MaiD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 46M. ZanottiM
- 25U. BislimiM
- 8A. GrgicM
- 27D. Dos SantosM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 11R. SteffenF
- 91K. BehrensF
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 39C. NdiayeG
- 4D. KelvinD
- 2B. KarimovD
- 18J. BichselD
- 26M. MarquesD
- 23G. AjdinM
- 14A. KendouciM
- 22B. D. Castro EspinosaF
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- W5-2away to Hapoel Jerusalem23 August 2026
FC Lugano
- W2-1Maccabi Tel Aviv20 August 2026
- D2-2away to NSI Runavik13 August 2026
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
- W2-0NSI Runavik6 August 2026
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | Super League | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 25 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ligat Ha'al · Super League
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano
- 20 August 2026FC Lugano 2–1 Maccabi Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Dor Peretz5 goals1 assist
- E. Sokler2 goals1 assist
- O. Davida2 goals
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assist
- H. Delcroix3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.