Maccabi Tel Aviv
vs
FC Lugano
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 25% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 20% draw, 55% FC Lugano — fair odds of 4.00, 5.00 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.66, FC Lugano 2.47.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Maccabi Tel Aviv
No earlier matches on record this season.
FC Lugano
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers
Maccabi Tel Aviv
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Lugano
- K. Behrens2 goals1 assists
- D. Moncada2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Maccabi Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.63 for FC Lugano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Maccabi Tel Aviv W-W-L-W; FC Lugano W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 2.47 for FC Lugano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv rate 0.59 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Lugano rate 0.94 and 1.49.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv against 2.47 for FC Lugano. Maccabi Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.49 for FC Lugano.