Dinamo Bucuresti
vs
Uta Arad
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Bucuresti 2–0 Uta Arad
The model makes it 61% Dinamo Bucuresti, 24% draw, 15% Uta Arad — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Bucuresti 2.00, Uta Arad 0.75.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Dinamo Bucuresti are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Bucuresti are top on 29 points from 12 games; Uta Arad are 12th on 12 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- Dinamo Bucuresti are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to FC Botosani.
- Uta Arad have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC Botosani.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Bucuresti 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 December 2025, ended Uta Arad 2–0 Dinamo Bucuresti.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Bucuresti at 61% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad
Dinamo Bucuresti
- W2-0FC Botosani16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe9 October 2026
- W4-0Farul Constanta20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Csikszereda11 September 2026
- W2-1FCSB5 September 2026
Uta Arad
- L0-2away to FC Botosani10 October 2026
- W1-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe18 September 2026
- L2-4away to Farul Constanta11 September 2026
- W5-1Csikszereda5 September 2026
- W3-1away to FCSB30 August 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Bucuresti won every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Bucuresti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Uta Arad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Uta Arad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 29 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Bucuresti
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 40% today
Uta Arad
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad
- 20 December 2025Uta Arad 2–0 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 15 August 2025Dinamo Bucuresti 1–1 Uta AradLiga I
- 10 March 2025Uta Arad 0–2 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 2 November 2024Dinamo Bucuresti 1–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 12 May 2024Dinamo Bucuresti 2–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 8 March 2024Dinamo Bucuresti 1–0 Uta AradLiga I
Leading scorers: Dinamo Bucuresti and Uta Arad
Dinamo Bucuresti
GoalsAssists
- D. Armstrong510
- Martín Pascual50
- Alberto Soro42
Uta Arad
GoalsAssists
- M. Coman40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dinamo Bucuresti carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.37 for Uta Arad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Dinamo Bucuresti and 0.75 for Uta Arad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Bucuresti rate 0.82 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Uta Arad rate 0.63 and 1.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Bucuresti a 40% chance of the title and Uta Arad 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Bucuresti the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Dinamo Bucuresti against 0.75 for Uta Arad. Dinamo Bucuresti's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.63 for Uta Arad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Bucuresti at home · Uta Arad away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Dinamo Bucuresti 12, Uta Arad 11.
Dinamo Bucuresti score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Uta Arad have let in 3 there.
Uta Arad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Dinamo Bucuresti have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Bucuresti
- at Arges Pitesti7 Nov · Liga Iwin 44%
- vs Petrolul Ploiesti21 Nov · Liga Iwin 63%
- at Universitatea Craiova28 Nov · Liga Iwin 24%
- vs Oțelul5 Dec · Liga Iwin 64%
Uta Arad
- vs Petrolul Ploiesti7 Nov · Liga Iwin 46%
- vs Universitatea Craiova21 Nov · Liga Iwin 23%
- at Oțelul28 Nov · Liga Iwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.