Orleans
vs
Thionville Lusitanos
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Orleans 2–1 Thionville Lusitanos
The model makes it 41% Orleans, 26% draw, 33% Thionville Lusitanos — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orleans 1.71, Thionville Lusitanos 1.46.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Orleans's rating is built from 44 Ligue 3 matches and Thionville Lusitanos's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Orleans are 14th on 11 points from 12 games; Thionville Lusitanos are 11th on 16 points from 12 games — Ligue 3.
- Orleans have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Valenciennes.
- Thionville Lusitanos have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Cannes.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos
Has the model earned this number?
Orleans at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos
Orleans
Ligue 3
- D2-2away to Valenciennes5 November 2026
- D1-1Villefranche31 October 2026
- L2-3away to Quevilly17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bastia1 October 2026
- D0-0Cannes26 September 2026
Thionville Lusitanos
Ligue 3
- W1-0Cannes7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Amiens29 October 2026
- L1-2Versailles17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Le Puy Foot3 October 2026
- L1-2La Roche VF26 September 2026
What these results say
- Orleans did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orleans scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orleans conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Thionville Lusitanos failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Thionville Lusitanos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Thionville Lusitanos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Orleans | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Thionville Lusitanos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Orleans
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
Thionville Lusitanos
Chance to finish in the top six · 22% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Thionville Lusitanos (11th, with Orleans 14th), while our numbers lean to Orleans. Orleans rate 0.48 in attack and 2.16 in defence, Thionville Lusitanos 0.56 and 2.19 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Orleans a 0% chance of the title and Thionville Lusitanos 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orleans the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Orleans against 1.46 for Thionville Lusitanos. Orleans's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.19 for Thionville Lusitanos.
How the model reaches 41% for Orleans to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Orleans to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Orleans's ratings take away 3 points and Thionville Lusitanos's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Orleans's ratings43%−3
- Thionville Lusitanos's ratings41%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Orleans at home · Thionville Lusitanos away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Orleans 12, Thionville Lusitanos 12.
Orleans score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Thionville Lusitanos have let in 2 there.
Thionville Lusitanos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Orleans have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Orleans
- at Aubagne5 Dec · Ligue 3win 38%
- vs Caen10 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
- at Bourg-en-bresse 0116 Jan · Ligue 3win 41%
- vs Gobelins23 Jan · Ligue 3win 46%
- at Rouen30 Jan · Ligue 3win 19%
Thionville Lusitanos
- vs Quevilly5 Dec · Ligue 3win 49%
- at Villefranche12 Dec · Ligue 3win 43%
- vs Valenciennes16 Jan · Ligue 3win 52%
- vs Bastia23 Jan · Ligue 3win 49%
- at Caen30 Jan · Ligue 3win 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.