Le Puy Foot
vs
Gobelins
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Le Puy Foot 1–0 Gobelins
The model makes it 51% Le Puy Foot, 28% draw, 21% Gobelins — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Le Puy Foot 1.61, Gobelins 0.86.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Le Puy Foot: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Le Puy Foot's rating is built from 44 Ligue 3 matches and Gobelins's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Le Puy Foot are 8th on 18 points from 12 games; Gobelins are 9th on 16 points from 12 games — Ligue 3.
- Le Puy Foot are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bourg-en-bresse 01.
- Gobelins have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to La Roche VF.
- Last 4 meetings: Le Puy Foot 1 win to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended Gobelins 0–1 Le Puy Foot.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Le Puy Foot vs Gobelins
Has the model earned this number?
Le Puy Foot at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Le Puy Foot vs Gobelins
Le Puy Foot
Ligue 3
- D1-1away to Bourg-en-bresse 017 November 2026
- D2-2Caen31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Aubagne17 October 2026
- W1-0Thionville Lusitanos3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Valenciennes26 September 2026
Gobelins
Ligue 3
- L0-1La Roche VF7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Fleury 9131 October 2026
- W3-1Rouen17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Concarneau3 October 2026
- W1-0Bastia26 September 2026
What these results say
- Le Puy Foot scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gobelins scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gobelins conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 9 | Gobelins | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Le Puy Foot
Chance to finish in the top six · 31% today
Gobelins
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Le Puy Foot vs Gobelins
- 6 March 2026Gobelins 0–1 Le Puy FootLigue 3
- 26 September 2025Le Puy Foot 1–1 GobelinsLigue 3
- 17 March 2023Le Puy Foot 1–1 GobelinsLigue 3
- 12 October 2022Gobelins 1–1 Le Puy FootLigue 3
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Le Puy Foot a 1.2% chance of the title and Gobelins 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Puy Foot the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Le Puy Foot against 0.86 for Gobelins. Le Puy Foot's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.9 for Gobelins.
How the model reaches 51% for Le Puy Foot to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Le Puy Foot to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Le Puy Foot's ratings add 6 points and Gobelins's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Le Puy Foot's ratings48%+6
- Gobelins's ratings51%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Le Puy Foot at home · Gobelins away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Le Puy Foot 12, Gobelins 12.
Le Puy Foot score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Gobelins have let in 2 there.
Gobelins score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Le Puy Foot have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Le Puy Foot
- at Concarneau5 Dec · Ligue 3win 30%
- vs Rouen12 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
- at Fleury 9116 Jan · Ligue 3win 29%
- vs La Roche VF23 Jan · Ligue 3win 36%
- vs Versailles30 Jan · Ligue 3win 39%
Gobelins
- vs Versailles5 Dec · Ligue 3win 30%
- at Amiens12 Dec · Ligue 3win 13%
- vs Cannes16 Jan · Ligue 3win 28%
- at Orleans23 Jan · Ligue 3win 25%
- vs Villefranche30 Jan · Ligue 3win 50%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.