Bastia
vs
Villefranche
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Bastia 2–1 Villefranche
The model makes it 53% Bastia, 25% draw, 22% Villefranche — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bastia 1.91, Villefranche 1.02.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Bastia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bastia's rating is built from 12 Ligue 3 matches and Villefranche's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bastia are 13th on 15 points from 12 games; Villefranche are 16th on 8 points from 12 games — Ligue 3.
- Bastia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Rouen.
- Villefranche have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Quevilly.
- Last 2 meetings: Bastia 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 February 2021, ended Bastia 1–1 Villefranche.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bastia vs Villefranche
Has the model earned this number?
Bastia at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bastia vs Villefranche
Bastia
Ligue 3
- L0-2away to Rouen7 November 2026
- W2-0Quevilly31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Concarneau17 October 2026
- D1-1Orleans1 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gobelins26 September 2026
Villefranche
Ligue 3
- L0-2Quevilly7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Orleans31 October 2026
- W2-1Cannes17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Amiens3 October 2026
- L1-2Versailles26 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bastia had two goals or fewer.
- Bastia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bastia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Villefranche conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Villefranche failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bastia | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 | Villefranche | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 26 | -16 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bastia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
Villefranche
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 67% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bastia vs Villefranche
- 19 February 2021Bastia 1–1 VillefrancheLigue 3
- 18 September 2020Villefranche 0–3 BastiaLigue 3
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bastia a 0.1% chance of the title and Villefranche 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bastia the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Bastia against 1.02 for Villefranche. Bastia's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.79 for Villefranche.
How the model reaches 53% for Bastia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bastia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Bastia's ratings add 4 points and Villefranche's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Bastia's ratings48%+4
- Villefranche's ratings53%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bastia at home · Villefranche away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Bastia 12, Villefranche 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bastia
- at Fleury 915 Dec · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Valenciennes12 Dec · Ligue 3win 45%
- at La Roche VF16 Jan · Ligue 3win 18%
- at Thionville Lusitanos23 Jan · Ligue 3win 25%
- vs Aubagne30 Jan · Ligue 3win 52%
Villefranche
- at Valenciennes5 Dec · Ligue 3win 22%
- vs Thionville Lusitanos12 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
- at Aubagne16 Jan · Ligue 3win 29%
- vs Caen23 Jan · Ligue 3win 28%
- at Gobelins30 Jan · Ligue 3win 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.