Fleury 91
vs
Rouen
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Fleury 91 2–1 Rouen
The model makes it 38% Fleury 91, 26% draw, 36% Rouen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fleury 91 1.55, Rouen 1.48.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Fleury 91 and Rouen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Fleury 91's rating is built from 44 Ligue 3 matches and Rouen's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Fleury 91 are 12th on 16 points from 12 games; Rouen are 2nd on 26 points from 12 games — Ligue 3.
- Fleury 91 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Concarneau.
- Rouen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Bastia.
- Last 4 meetings: Rouen 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 May 2026, ended Fleury 91 1–2 Rouen.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fleury 91 vs Rouen
Has the model earned this number?
Fleury 91 at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fleury 91 vs Rouen
Fleury 91
Ligue 3
- L0-2away to Concarneau7 November 2026
- D1-1Gobelins31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 0117 October 2026
- W3-2Caen3 October 2026
- L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026
Rouen
Ligue 3
- W2-0Bastia7 November 2026
- W2-1Concarneau31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Gobelins17 October 2026
- W2-0Bourg-en-bresse 013 October 2026
- L2-3away to Caen24 September 2026
What these results say
- Fleury 91 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleury 91 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rouen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Fleury 91 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 16 |
| 2 | Rouen | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fleury 91
Chance to finish in the top six · 21% today
Rouen
Chance to win the league · 24% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Fleury 91 vs Rouen
- 15 May 2026Fleury 91 1–2 RouenLigue 3
- 8 August 2025Rouen 0–0 Fleury 91Ligue 3
- 12 September 2020Fleury 91 0–0 RouenNational 2 - Group A
- 19 October 2019Rouen 2–0 Fleury 91National 2 - Group B
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rouen (2nd, with Fleury 91 12th), while our numbers lean to Fleury 91. Fleury 91 rate 0.56 in attack and 2.05 in defence, Rouen 0.60 and 1.70 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleury 91 a 0.5% chance of the title and Rouen 24.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Fleury 91 v Rouen has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 42% / 26% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is Fleury 91's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Fleury 91 win38%▼ −4
- Draw26%=
- Rouen win36%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleury 91 the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Fleury 91 against 1.48 for Rouen. Fleury 91's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.7 for Rouen.
How the model reaches 38% for Fleury 91 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fleury 91 to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Fleury 91's ratings take away 3 points and Rouen's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Fleury 91's ratings42%−3
- Rouen's ratings38%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fleury 91 at home · Rouen away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Fleury 91 12, Rouen 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fleury 91
- vs Bastia5 Dec · Ligue 3win 51%
- at La Roche VF12 Dec · Ligue 3win 22%
- vs Le Puy Foot16 Jan · Ligue 3win 45%
- at Versailles23 Jan · Ligue 3win 25%
- vs Cannes30 Jan · Ligue 3win 37%
Rouen
- vs La Roche VF5 Dec · Ligue 3win 44%
- at Le Puy Foot12 Dec · Ligue 3win 35%
- vs Versailles16 Jan · Ligue 3win 47%
- at Amiens23 Jan · Ligue 3win 22%
- vs Orleans30 Jan · Ligue 3win 58%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.