La Roche VF
vs
Concarneau
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: La Roche VF 1–0 Concarneau
The model makes it 53% La Roche VF, 26% draw, 21% Concarneau — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: La Roche VF 1.77, Concarneau 0.93.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to La Roche VF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. La Roche VF's rating is built from 12 Ligue 3 matches and Concarneau's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- La Roche VF are top on 27 points from 12 games; Concarneau are 6th on 20 points from 12 games — Ligue 3.
- La Roche VF have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Gobelins.
- Concarneau have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Fleury 91.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: La Roche VF vs Concarneau
Has the model earned this number?
La Roche VF at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into La Roche VF vs Concarneau
La Roche VF
Ligue 3
- W1-0away to Gobelins7 November 2026
- W2-0Bourg-en-bresse 0131 October 2026
- L1-2away to Caen15 October 2026
- W3-1Aubagne3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026
Concarneau
Ligue 3
- W2-0Fleury 917 November 2026
- L1-2away to Rouen31 October 2026
- D1-1Bastia17 October 2026
- W2-1Gobelins3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bourg-en-bresse 0126 September 2026
What these results say
- La Roche VF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- La Roche VF won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Concarneau scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Concarneau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Concarneau.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 27 |
| 6 | Concarneau | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
La Roche VF
Chance to win the league · 30% today
Concarneau
Chance to finish in the top six · 27% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives La Roche VF a 30.1% chance of the title and Concarneau 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives La Roche VF the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for La Roche VF against 0.93 for Concarneau. La Roche VF's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.84 for Concarneau.
How the model reaches 53% for La Roche VF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for La Roche VF to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, La Roche VF's ratings add 5 points and Concarneau's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- La Roche VF's ratings48%+5
- Concarneau's ratings53%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
La Roche VF at home · Concarneau away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: La Roche VF 12, Concarneau 12.
La Roche VF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Concarneau have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
La Roche VF
- at Rouen5 Dec · Ligue 3win 29%
- vs Fleury 9112 Dec · Ligue 3win 53%
- vs Bastia16 Jan · Ligue 3win 57%
- at Le Puy Foot23 Jan · Ligue 3win 36%
- vs Amiens30 Jan · Ligue 3win 36%
Concarneau
- vs Le Puy Foot5 Dec · Ligue 3win 42%
- at Versailles12 Dec · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Amiens16 Jan · Ligue 3win 28%
- at Cannes23 Jan · Ligue 3win 22%
- vs Quevilly30 Jan · Ligue 3win 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.