Regular Season - 13 · 21 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Quevilly vs Valenciennes Ligue 3 prediction

Stade Robert Diochon, Rouen

Our model says: Quevilly 2–1 Valenciennes

The model makes it 48% Quevilly, 25% draw, 27% Valenciennes — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Quevilly 1.86, Valenciennes 1.26.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Quevilly's rating is built from 44 Ligue 3 matches and Valenciennes's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Quevilly are 10th on 16 points from 12 games; Valenciennes are 15th on 10 points from 12 games — Ligue 3.
  • Quevilly have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Villefranche.
  • Valenciennes are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Orleans.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Quevilly 3–2 Valenciennes.

More Ligue 3 predictions

All Ligue 3 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Quevilly vs Valenciennes

61%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Quevilly win Draw Valenciennes win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Quevilly first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Quevilly at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Quevilly vs Valenciennes

Quevilly

Ligue 3

  • W2-0away to Villefranche7 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Bastia31 October 2026
  • W3-2Orleans17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Cannes3 October 2026
  • D1-1Amiens26 September 2026

Valenciennes

Ligue 3

  • D2-2Orleans5 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Cannes31 October 2026
  • D1-1Amiens17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Versailles3 October 2026
  • W2-1Le Puy Foot26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Quevilly scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Quevilly conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Valenciennes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Valenciennes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Valenciennes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Quevilly124441316-316
15Valenciennes122461319-610

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Quevilly

Chance to finish in the top six · 16% today

Win 19%
Draw 13%
Defeat 10%

Valenciennes

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today

Win 13%
Draw 19%
Defeat 22%

From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Quevilly vs Valenciennes

  • 3 April 2026Quevilly 3–2 ValenciennesLigue 3
  • 31 October 2025Valenciennes 2–0 QuevillyLigue 3
  • 11 April 2025Valenciennes 0–0 QuevillyLigue 3
  • 22 November 2024Quevilly 2–0 ValenciennesLigue 3
  • 10 May 2024Valenciennes 2–1 QuevillyLigue 2
  • 25 November 2023Quevilly 0–0 ValenciennesLigue 2

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Quevilly a 0.4% chance of the title and Valenciennes 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Quevilly v Valenciennes has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Quevilly's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Quevilly win48%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Valenciennes win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Quevilly Valenciennes
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
2.13 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.33
1.86 Model expected goals (this match) 1.26

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Quevilly the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Quevilly against 1.26 for Valenciennes. Quevilly's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.33 for Valenciennes.

Quevilly carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.07 for Valenciennes. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 48% for Quevilly to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Quevilly to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Quevilly's ratings add 1 point and Valenciennes's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Quevilly's ratings46%+1
  5. Valenciennes's ratings48%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

QuevillyValenciennes
12Matches12
4W 4D 4LRecord2W 4D 6L
13 1.1 per gameGoals scored13 1.1 per game
16 1.3 per gameGoals conceded19 1.6 per game
2 of 12Clean sheets2 of 12
4 of 12Failed to score3 of 12
1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 4
22 1.8 per gameYellow cards34 2.8 per game
1Red cards2

Quevilly at home · Valenciennes away

5Played6
3W 2D 0LRecord0W 1D 5L
9–6Goals for – against5–13
0 of 5Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, Ligue 3, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 3 matches this season: Quevilly 12, Valenciennes 12.

Quevilly scored 242211
Valenciennes conceded 416322

Quevilly score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Valenciennes have let in 1 there.

Valenciennes scored 130235
Quevilly conceded 123523

Valenciennes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Quevilly have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Quevilly

  • at Thionville Lusitanos5 Dec · Ligue 3win 26%
  • vs Aubagne12 Dec · Ligue 3win 56%
  • at Caen16 Jan · Ligue 3win 23%
  • vs Bourg-en-bresse 0123 Jan · Ligue 3win 58%
  • at Concarneau30 Jan · Ligue 3win 26%

Valenciennes

  • vs Villefranche5 Dec · Ligue 3win 55%
  • at Bastia12 Dec · Ligue 3win 28%
  • at Thionville Lusitanos16 Jan · Ligue 3win 24%
  • vs Aubagne23 Jan · Ligue 3win 54%
  • at Bourg-en-bresse 0130 Jan · Ligue 3win 40%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.