Regular Season - 13 · 21 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Versailles vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 Ligue 3 prediction

Saint-Germain-en-Laye

Our model says: Versailles 2–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01

The model makes it 67% Versailles, 21% draw, 12% Bourg-en-bresse 01 — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Versailles 2.25, Bourg-en-bresse 01 0.66.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Versailles are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Versailles's rating is built from 44 Ligue 3 matches and Bourg-en-bresse 01's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Versailles are 4th on 22 points from 12 games; Bourg-en-bresse 01 are bottom on 6 points from 12 games — Ligue 3.
  • Versailles have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Caen.
  • Bourg-en-bresse 01 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Le Puy Foot.
  • Last 6 meetings: Versailles 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended Versailles 1–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01.

More Ligue 3 predictions

All Ligue 3 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Versailles vs Bourg-en-bresse 01

44%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Versailles win Draw Bourg-en-bresse 01 win
  1. 2–014%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 3–010%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 1–18%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Versailles first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Versailles at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Versailles vs Bourg-en-bresse 01

Versailles

Ligue 3

  • L0-1away to Caen7 November 2026
  • W4-0Aubagne31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos17 October 2026
  • W1-0Valenciennes3 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026

Bourg-en-bresse 01

Ligue 3

  • D1-1Le Puy Foot7 November 2026
  • L0-2away to La Roche VF31 October 2026
  • L0-1Fleury 9117 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Rouen3 October 2026
  • D1-1Concarneau26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Versailles won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Versailles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bourg-en-bresse 01 did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Bourg-en-bresse 01 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Bourg-en-bresse 01 had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Versailles127141914+522
18Bourg-en-bresse 0112138619-136

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Versailles

Chance to finish in the top six · 75% today

Win 78%
Draw 69%
Defeat 65%

Bourg-en-bresse 01

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 93% today

Win 86%
Draw 91%
Defeat 94%

From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Versailles vs Bourg-en-bresse 01

  • 13 March 2026Versailles 1–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
  • 3 October 2025Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–1 VersaillesLigue 3
  • 25 April 2025Versailles 3–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
  • 13 December 2024Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–0 VersaillesLigue 3
  • 3 February 2023Bourg-en-bresse 01 3–1 VersaillesLigue 3
  • 26 August 2022Versailles 2–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Versailles a 11.6% chance of the title and Bourg-en-bresse 01 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Versailles v Bourg-en-bresse 01 has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 69% / 20% / 11% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 67% / 21% / 12%: the biggest move is Versailles's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Versailles win67%▼ −2
  2. Draw21%▲ +1
  3. Bourg-en-bresse 01 win12%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Versailles Bourg-en-bresse 01
0.6 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.3
1.83 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.31
2.25 Model expected goals (this match) 0.66

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Versailles the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Versailles against 0.66 for Bourg-en-bresse 01. Versailles's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/2.31 for Bourg-en-bresse 01.

Versailles carry a model rating of 6.29 against 5.85 for Bourg-en-bresse 01.

How the model reaches 67% for Versailles to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Versailles to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Versailles's ratings add 14 points and Bourg-en-bresse 01's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 67%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Versailles's ratings57%+14
  5. Bourg-en-bresse 01's ratings67%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

VersaillesBourg-en-bresse 01
12Matches12
7W 1D 4LRecord1W 3D 8L
19 1.6 per gameGoals scored6 0.5 per game
14 1.2 per gameGoals conceded19 1.6 per game
5 of 12Clean sheets0 of 12
4 of 12Failed to score8 of 12
2 of 3Penalties scored3 of 3
33 2.8 per gameYellow cards25 2.1 per game

Versailles at home · Bourg-en-bresse 01 away

5Played5
3W 1D 1LRecord0W 1D 4L
6–3Goals for – against1–9
4 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Ligue 3, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 3 matches this season: Versailles 12, Bourg-en-bresse 01 12.

Versailles scored 335124
Bourg-en-bresse 01 conceded 315334

Versailles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Bourg-en-bresse 01 have let in 5 there.

Bourg-en-bresse 01 scored 111111
Versailles conceded 130424

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Versailles

  • at Gobelins5 Dec · Ligue 3win 41%
  • vs Concarneau12 Dec · Ligue 3win 51%
  • at Rouen16 Jan · Ligue 3win 27%
  • vs Fleury 9123 Jan · Ligue 3win 51%
  • at Le Puy Foot30 Jan · Ligue 3win 34%

Bourg-en-bresse 01

  • vs Amiens5 Dec · Ligue 3win 16%
  • at Cannes12 Dec · Ligue 3win 12%
  • vs Orleans16 Jan · Ligue 3win 30%
  • at Quevilly23 Jan · Ligue 3win 17%
  • vs Valenciennes30 Jan · Ligue 3win 31%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.