Aris
vs
AEK Larnaca
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Aris 0–1 AEK Larnaca
The model makes it 30% Aris, 29% draw, 41% AEK Larnaca — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Aris 1.13, AEK Larnaca 1.56.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Aris are 8th on 5 points from 4 games; AEK Larnaca are top on 9 points from 4 games — 1. Division.
- Aris have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Karmiotissa.
- AEK Larnaca have won 3 of their last 4, most recently a 2-1 win away to Omonia 29is Maiou.
- Last 6 meetings: AEK Larnaca 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 May 2026, ended Aris 3–4 AEK Larnaca.
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aris vs AEK Larnaca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Larnaca at 41% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aris vs AEK Larnaca
Aris
- D0-0Karmiotissa20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Krasava Ypsonas14 September 2026
- L1-4Omonia Nicosia7 September 2026
- D2-2Apollon Limassol29 August 2026
AEK Larnaca
- W2-1away to Omonia 29is Maiou18 September 2026
- L0-1Pafos13 September 2026
- W4-1away to Nea Salamis6 September 2026
- W3-1Apoel Nicosia29 August 2026
What these results say
- Aris failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aris scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- AEK Larnaca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- AEK Larnaca won 3 of these 4 matches.
- AEK Larnaca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aris | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aris vs AEK Larnaca
- 22 May 2026Aris 3–4 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 25 April 2026AEK Larnaca 2–0 Aris1. Division
- 10 January 2026Aris 1–0 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 22 September 2025AEK Larnaca 3–2 Aris1. Division
- 27 April 2025Aris 1–0 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 29 March 2025AEK Larnaca 1–1 Aris1. Division
The two sides
Aris carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.86 for AEK Larnaca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Aris and 1.56 for AEK Larnaca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aris rate 0.75 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Larnaca rate 0.95 and 0.93.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Larnaca the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Aris against 1.56 for AEK Larnaca. Aris's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.93 for AEK Larnaca.
Season stats
Aris at home · AEK Larnaca away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Aris 4, AEK Larnaca 4.
AEK Larnaca score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Aris have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aris
- at AEL25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 34%
- vs Anorthosis1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- at Apoel Nicosia8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Nea Salamis21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
AEK Larnaca
- vs Omonia Nicosia26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- at Krasava Ypsonas31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 50%
- vs Karmiotissa7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 59%
- at Olympiakos22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.