Omonia Aradippou
vs
AEL
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Omonia Aradippou 1–0 AEL
The model makes it 41% Omonia Aradippou, 31% draw, 28% AEL — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Omonia Aradippou 1.36, AEL 0.95.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Omonia Aradippou are 6th on 6 points from 4 games; AEL are 2nd on 9 points from 4 games — 1. Division.
- Omonia Aradippou are unbeaten in their last 4 (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Olympiakos.
- AEL have won 3 of their last 4, most recently a 2-0 win away to Pafos.
- Last 6 meetings: AEL 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Omonia Aradippou 0–3 AEL.
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Omonia Aradippou vs AEL
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Aradippou at 41% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Omonia Aradippou vs AEL
Omonia Aradippou
- D1-1Olympiakos20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Karmiotissa12 September 2026
- W2-1Krasava Ypsonas5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Omonia Nicosia31 August 2026
AEL
- W2-0away to Pafos18 September 2026
- W2-1Nea Salamis11 September 2026
- L0-6away to Apoel Nicosia6 September 2026
- W2-0Anorthosis30 August 2026
What these results say
- Omonia Aradippou went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- AEL won 3 of these 4 matches.
- AEL scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Omonia Aradippou | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 2 | AEL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Omonia Aradippou vs AEL
- 4 April 2026Omonia Aradippou 0–3 AEL1. Division
- 14 March 2026AEL 1–2 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 7 December 2025Omonia Aradippou 1–3 AEL1. Division
- 15 March 2025Omonia Aradippou 1–2 AEL1. Division
- 22 December 2024Omonia Aradippou 2–2 AEL1. Division
- 31 August 2024AEL 1–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Omonia Aradippou carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.44 for AEL. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Omonia Aradippou and 0.95 for AEL. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia Aradippou rate 0.56 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEL rate 0.66 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AEL, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Aradippou the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Omonia Aradippou against 0.95 for AEL. Omonia Aradippou's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.49 for AEL.
Season stats
Omonia Aradippou at home · AEL away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Omonia Aradippou 4, AEL 4.
Omonia Aradippou score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); AEL have let in 3 there.
AEL score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Omonia Aradippou have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Omonia Aradippou
- at Anorthosis24 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- vs Apoel Nicosia1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- at Nea Salamis6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 29%
- vs Pafos21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 31%
AEL
- vs Aris25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- at Omonia Nicosia31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 12%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- at Karmiotissa22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.