Regular Season - 6 · 19 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia 1. Division prediction

Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos

Our model says: Pafos 1–0 Apoel Nicosia

The model makes it 46% Pafos, 28% draw, 26% Apoel Nicosia — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Pafos 1.77, Apoel Nicosia 1.03.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published

Key facts

  • Pafos are 4th on 7 points from 4 games; Apoel Nicosia are 9th on 4 points from 4 games — 1. Division.
  • Pafos have won 2 of their last 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to AEL.
  • Apoel Nicosia have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Apollon Limassol.
  • Last 6 meetings: Pafos 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 May 2026, ended Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Pafos46%2.17
Draw28%3.57
Apoel Nicosia26%3.85

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia

54%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Pafos win Draw Apoel Nicosia win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 3–16%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Pafos first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 40%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pafos at 46% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia

Pafos

  • L0-2AEL18 September 2026
  • W1-0away to AEK Larnaca13 September 2026
  • D0-0Olympiakos7 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Karmiotissa30 August 2026

Apoel Nicosia

  • D2-2away to Apollon Limassol19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Anorthosis12 September 2026
  • W6-0AEL6 September 2026
  • L1-3away to AEK Larnaca29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Pafos kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Pafos had two goals or fewer.
  • Apoel Nicosia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Apoel Nicosia had three goals or more.
  • Apoel Nicosia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Pafos421142+27
9Apoel Nicosia4112107+34

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia

  • 22 May 2026Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 26 April 2026Apoel Nicosia 3–3 Pafos1. Division
  • 4 February 2026Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 31 August 2025Apoel Nicosia 0–1 Pafos1. Division
  • 12 May 2025Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Pafos1. Division
  • 6 April 2025Pafos 0–1 Apoel Nicosia1. Division

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Pafos carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.6 for Apoel Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Pafos and 1.03 for Apoel Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Pafos rate 0.79 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Apoel Nicosia rate 0.84 and 1.38.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Pafos against 1.03 for Apoel Nicosia. Pafos's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.38 for Apoel Nicosia.

Season stats

PafosApoel Nicosia
4Matches4
2W 1D 1LRecord1W 1D 2L
4 1.0 a gameGoals scored10 2.5 a game
2 0.5 a gameGoals conceded7 1.8 a game
3 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4
2 of 4Failed to score0 of 4
–Penalties scored1 of 1
7 1.8 a gameYellow cards9 2.3 a game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 2×Usual shape4-2-3-1 4×

Pafos at home · Apoel Nicosia away

2Played3
0W 1D 1LRecord0W 1D 2L
0–2Goals for – against4–7
1 of 2Clean sheets0 of 3

League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: Pafos 4, Apoel Nicosia 4.

Pafos scored 001210
Apoel Nicosia conceded 120002

Pafos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Apoel Nicosia have let in 0 there.

Apoel Nicosia scored 212124
Pafos conceded 000200

Apoel Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Pafos have let in 0 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Pafos

  • vs Riga22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 68%
  • at Nea Salamis26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 39%
  • at Apollon Limassol31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 31%

Apoel Nicosia

  • vs Omonia 29is Maiou25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 45%
  • at Omonia Aradippou1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 34%
  • vs Aris8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 44%
  • at Omonia Nicosia21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 16%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.