4 August 2026, 00:15 UTC

Central Cordoba de Santiago vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades, Santiago del Estero
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-0 San Lorenzo.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Central Cordoba de Santiago, 26% draw, 32% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Central Cordoba de Santiago at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Central Cordoba de Santiago96%Draw4%San Lorenzo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Santosassist: S. Moyano
31'
D. Barrera
41'
46'
🔁J. Alvarezout: G. del Prete
M. Vera
50'
53'
🔁N. Ariasout: M. Cardillo
62'
M. De Ritis
S. Moyano
63'
66'
N. Tripichio
69'
🔁M. Realiout: D. Herazo
🔁M. Santosout: L. Varaldo
72'
🔁M. Iacobellisout: Y. Casermeiro
78'
🔁S. Moyanoout: L. Marchi
78'
🔁H. Tijanovichout: T. Cravero
78'
78'
🔁J. Rattalinoout: F. Gulli
Y. Casermeiro
81'
🔁L. Gonzalezout: J. Cardozo
89'
L. Varaldo
90+2'
90+5'
A. Cuello

Match stats — Central Cordoba de Santiago vs San Lorenzo

38%Possession62%
14Shots15
7On target2
3Corners5
0.82xG0.72

Goals against chances

Central Cordoba de Santiago1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth
San Lorenzo0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Central Cordoba de Santiago 4-2-3-1
  • 25Javier VallejosG
  • 33Santiago MoyanoD
  • 2Alejandro MacielD
  • 6Facundo MansillaD
  • 20Fernando MartínezD
  • 22Matías VeraM
  • 11Horacio TijanovichM
  • 10Marco IacobellisM
  • 18Lucas GonzálezM
  • 7Diego BarreraM
  • 27Michael SantosF
Substitutes
  • 9Lucas VaraldoF
  • 17Yuri CasermeiroD
  • 3Leonardo MarchiD
  • 5Tiago CraveroM
  • 55Juan CardozoM
  • 12Máximo ÁlvarezG
  • 13José GomézD
  • 30Federico RodriguezM
  • 37Alan LapridaF
Coach: Sebastian Dominguez
San Lorenzo 4-4-2
  • 12Orlando GillG
  • 30Nahuel AriasD
  • 19Emiliano AmorD
  • 35Alejo CordobaD
  • 6Mathias de RitisD
  • 22Juan ÁlvarezM
  • 24Nicolás TripichioM
  • 13Juan RattalinoM
  • 11Matias RealiM
  • 29Rodrigo AuzmendiF
  • 9Alexis CuelloF
Substitutes
  • 21Gustavo del PreteF
  • 15Mauricio CardilloM
  • 18Diego HerazoF
  • 10Facundo GulliM
  • 25José DevecchiG
  • 16Guzmán CorujoD
  • 42Franco LorenzonD
  • 3Teo Rodríguez PaganoD
  • 14Agustin LadstatterF
Coach: Nestor Gorosito

Form going into Central Cordoba de Santiago vs San Lorenzo

Central Cordoba de Santiago

  • L0-2Atletico Tucuman31 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza24 July 2026

San Lorenzo

  • W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza28 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Lanus26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Central Cordoba de Santiago9216511-67
10San Lorenzo932446-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs San Lorenzo

  • 4 August 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 31 January 2026San Lorenzo 1–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 23 November 2025Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 November 2024Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 April 2024Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–0 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 27 November 2023San Lorenzo 2–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoCopa de la Liga Profesional

Leading scorers: Central Cordoba de Santiago and San Lorenzo

Central Cordoba de Santiago

  • M. Santos7 goals2 assists

San Lorenzo

  • R. Auzmendi6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.