NEC Nijmegen
vs
Olympiakos Piraeus
The model makes it 55% NEC Nijmegen, 24% draw, 21% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.78, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.02.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus
- 4 August 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–0 NEC NijmegenUEFA Champions League
- 27 July 2024NEC Nijmegen 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NEC Nijmegen carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.78 for Olympiakos Piraeus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): NEC Nijmegen D; Olympiakos Piraeus D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.02 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEC Nijmegen rate 1.01 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympiakos Piraeus rate 0.79 and 0.93.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.02 for Olympiakos Piraeus. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/0.93 for Olympiakos Piraeus.