Northampton
vs
Oldham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Northampton 1–0 Oldham
The model makes it 36% Northampton, 33% draw, 31% Oldham — fair odds of 2.78, 3.03 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Northampton 1.00, Oldham 0.89.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,053 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 28 October 2026. Northampton's rating is built from 11 League Two matches and Oldham's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,265 matches.
Key facts
- Northampton are 19th on 13 points from 11 games; Oldham are 20th on 12 points from 12 games — League Two.
- Northampton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Colchester.
- Oldham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Barnet.
- Last 5 meetings: Northampton 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 November 2025, ended Oldham 3–1 Northampton.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Northampton vs Oldham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Northampton at 36% here. Across 5,037 settled matches (as of 28 October 2026), 3,849 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Northampton vs Oldham
Northampton
League Two
- W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
- L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026
- W2-0away to Grimsby17 October 2026
- D1-1away to York10 October 2026
- L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026
Oldham
League Two
- D1-1away to Barnet24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026
- W4-1Cheltenham17 October 2026
- D0-0Accrington Stanley10 October 2026
- L1-4Salford City26 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
- Oldham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Northampton
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 4% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Northampton vs Oldham
- 1 November 2025Oldham 3–1 NorthamptonFA Cup
- 15 April 2022Oldham 0–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 23 November 2021Northampton 2–1 OldhamLeague Two
- 2 November 2019Oldham 2–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 4 May 2019Oldham 2–5 NorthamptonLeague Two
Leading scorers: Northampton and Oldham
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh54
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Northampton carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.14 for Oldham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Northampton and 0.89 for Oldham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Northampton rate 0.34 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oldham rate 0.49 and 2.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Northampton a 0.2% chance of the title and Oldham 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,427 correct results out of 5,040 settled predictions (48%), with 504 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on Northampton v Oldham has moved
First published on 23 Sep at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 36% / 33% / 31%: the biggest move is Oldham's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Northampton win36%▲ +1
- Draw33%▲ +3
- Oldham win31%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Northampton the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Northampton against 0.89 for Oldham. Northampton's attack/defence rating is 0.34/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.02 for Oldham.
How the model reaches 36% for Northampton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Northampton to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Northampton's ratings take away 2 points and Oldham's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level37%−4
- Northampton's ratings35%−2
- Oldham's ratings36%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Northampton at home · Oldham away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Northampton 11, Oldham 12.
Northampton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Oldham have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Northampton
- at York7 Nov · FA Cupwin 23%
- at Salford City14 Nov · League Twowin 23%
- vs Rochdale21 Nov · League Twowin 45%
- at Port Vale24 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- at Walsall28 Nov · League Twowin 27%
Oldham
- vs Sheffield Wednesday8 Nov · FA Cupwin 32%
- at Shrewsbury14 Nov · League Twowin 37%
- vs Exeter City21 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- at Rotherham28 Nov · League Twowin 40%
- vs Bristol Rovers1 Dec · League Twowin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.