NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Osijek 1-3 Istra 1961.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% NK Osijek, 29% draw, 26% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
NK Osijek at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Osijek vs Istra 1961
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31M. MalenicaG
- 22J. KruiverD
- 98Izak JežićD
- 33E. HasićD
- 2M. HeisterD
- 23L. VrbancicM
- 8Š. MikolčićM
- 39D. BukvićM
- 11Luka TunjicM
- 21CanteroM
- 79A. LeónF
- 1N. CurcijaG
- 7I. DolčekF
- 18Niko FarkašM
- 26L. JelenićD
- 47D. KalemD
- 49Ivano KolarikD
- 30A. LjatifiF
- 16O. PetrusenkoM
- 24L. PosavecD
- 1F. KolićG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 4R. KumarD
- 13Niko ŠepićD
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 25G. AlbarracÃnM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 8A. MaurićM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 9IsaacF
- 27D. CelijaF
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 12Roko BanovacG
- 39T. BrajkovicF
- 11S. GoričanF
- 5D. HodzicM
- 16S. MiettinenD
- 66M. MomohD
- 40J. Paus-KunštG
Form going into NK Osijek vs Istra 1961
NK Osijek
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin19 September 2026
- W4-2Dinamo Zagreb12 September 2026
- L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
- L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
Istra 1961
All competitions we cover
- L0-1HNK Gorica19 September 2026
- W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026
- L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Osijek had three goals or more.
- Istra 1961 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Istra 1961 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Osijek | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 20 |
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs Istra 1961
- 10 May 2026NK Osijek 0–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 6 March 2026Istra 1961 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 7 December 2025NK Osijek 1–5 Istra 1961HNL
- 21 September 2025Istra 1961 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 25 May 2025NK Osijek 1–1 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers: NK Osijek and Istra 1961
NK Osijek
GoalsAssists
- A. León61
- N. Omerović50
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen115
- H. Jaganjac52
- D. Ahmeti34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Istra 1961 won 3–1 at NK Osijek. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Osijek at 45% and given a win for Istra 1961 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Simun Mikolcic 2' for NK Osijek, Antonio Mauric 34' for Istra 1961, Nik Skafar Zuzic 50' for Istra 1961, Dukan Ahmeti 90+3' for Istra 1961. On expected goals it finished 0.81–2.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Osijek a 41.4% chance to finish in the top four: 46.2% after a win, 39.1% after a draw, 34.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.9%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.
For Istra 1961 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 31.9% going in: 25.8% after a win, 32.0% after a draw, 35.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.8%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on NK Osijek v Istra 1961 has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is NK Osijek's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- NK Osijek win45%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Istra 1961 win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.