NK Osijek
vs
Istra 1961
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Osijek 1–0 Istra 1961
The model makes it 42% NK Osijek, 30% draw, 28% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NK Osijek 1.48, Istra 1961 0.97.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NK Osijek vs Istra 1961
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Osijek at 42% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NK Osijek vs Istra 1961
NK Osijek
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin19 September 2026
- W4-2Dinamo Zagreb12 September 2026
- L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
- L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
Istra 1961
- L0-1HNK Gorica19 September 2026
- W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026
- L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Osijek had three goals or more.
- Istra 1961 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Istra 1961 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Osijek | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs Istra 1961
- 10 May 2026NK Osijek 0–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 6 March 2026Istra 1961 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 7 December 2025NK Osijek 1–5 Istra 1961HNL
- 21 September 2025Istra 1961 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 25 May 2025NK Osijek 1–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 29 March 2025Istra 1961 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
Leading scorers: NK Osijek and Istra 1961
NK Osijek
- A. León5 goals1 assists
- N. Omerović5 goals
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen7 goals2 assists
- H. Jaganjac4 goals1 assists
- D. Ahmeti2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Osijek carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.29 for Istra 1961. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for NK Osijek and 0.97 for Istra 1961. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Osijek rate 0.56 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Istra 1961 rate 0.55 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Osijek a 16.7% chance of the title and Istra 1961 0.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Osijek the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for NK Osijek against 0.97 for Istra 1961. NK Osijek's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.68 for Istra 1961.