ADT vs FC Cajamarca Primera División prediction & result
Final score: ADT 0-0 FC Cajamarca.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% ADT, 27% draw, 33% FC Cajamarca — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ADT at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — ADT vs FC Cajamarca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. ValenciaG
- 98A. RamosD
- 99J. PereyraD
- 44H. BenincasaD
- 59O. NúñezD
- 23J. NarváezM
- 16L. PérezM
- 77Juan David Lucumí CueroM
- 7J. RojasM
- 18Aylton MazzoM
- 24S. PeraltaF
- 32J. BaumanF
- 26Jhojan GarcilazoF
- 27A. HidalgoM
- 31J. NavarroD
- 6Á. OjedaM
- 50Omar Vidal Ramírez LozanoF
- 3L. RugelD
- 33C. SolísG
- 28J. SotoD
- 3J. MedinaG
- 44Carlos Daniel Gómez CcasaniD
- 21J. VegaD
- 95Y. VílchezD
- 31S. EncisoD
- 25P. GoyonecheM
- 18Jefferson Gabriel Orejuela IzquierdoM
- 20C. MezaM
- 11M. ArrascoM
- 17B. PalaciosM
- 9P. CejasF
- 8Valentino Ybrahin Sandoval SánchezF
- 5R. SuarezD
- 6M. RasmussenF
- 77J. LugoF
- 14A. GutiérrezD
- 13C. CorreaM
- 88H. CamachoM
- 12S. Aspajo CohenG
- 26H. TimanáD
Form going into ADT vs FC Cajamarca
ADT
- W2-1Cienciano23 September 2026
- L0-2away to Alianza Lima19 September 2026
- L0-3away to FBC Melgar6 September 2026
- L1-3Sport Huancayo30 August 2026
FC Cajamarca
- L1-2Cusco19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas12 September 2026
- L2-5Cienciano4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Comerciantes Unidos28 August 2026
What these results say
- ADT conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- ADT failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for ADT had three goals or more.
- FC Cajamarca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Cajamarca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for FC Cajamarca had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | ADT | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ADT vs FC Cajamarca
- 10 October 2026ADT 0–0 FC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 18 April 2026FC Cajamarca 2–2 ADTPrimera División
- 18 January 2026FC Cajamarca 2–1 ADTFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: ADT and FC Cajamarca
ADT
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
FC Cajamarca
GoalsAssists
- M. Arrasco75
- B. Palacios73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.