10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Stadion Poljud, Split
Referee: Igor Pajač, Croatia
Full time2 – 1

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 Dinamo Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% HNK Hajduk Split, 27% draw, 36% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Hajduk Split at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Dion Drena Beljo
21'
⚽Dion Drena Beljoassist: Matteo Perez Vinlöf
⚽Scott Mckenna (OG)
24'
⚽Abdoulie Sanyangassist: Michele Šego
59'
Ron Raqi
62'
63'
🔁Lukas Kacavendaout: Luka Stojkovic
63'
🔁Mateo Lisicaout: Iker Almena Horcajo
63'
🔁Paul Tabinasout: Niko Galesic
70'
🔁Miha Zajcout: Dani Rodríguez
Dalisson De Almeida Leite
73'
73'
🔁Sergi Dominguezout: Moris Valincic
🔁Abdoulie Sanyangout: Andelo Šutalo
76'
🔁marin soticekout: Dario Melnjak
89'
🔁Khalil Fayadout: Leander Dendoncker
90'
🔁Ron Raqiout: Dennis Hadzikadunić
90'
🔁Dalisson De Almeida Leiteout: Carlos Martín Domínguez
90+14'
90+16'
Moris Valincic

Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb

51%Possession49%
10Shots18
3On target4
2Corners4
1.13xG1.45

Goals against chances

HNK Hajduk Split2 from 1.13 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dinamo Zagreb1 from 1.45 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilićG
  • 22M. AcapandiéD
  • 15D. MarešićD
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 32Š. HrgovićD
  • 20Alberto del MoralM
  • 8K. FayadM
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 9DaliM
  • 23M. ŠotičekM
  • 11M. ŠegoF
Substitutes
  • 18L. DendonckerM
  • 99D. FesyukG
  • 3Roko GabrićD
  • 6D. HadžikadunićD
  • 26A. GuramM
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 77Carlos MartínF
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 44D. StipicaG
Coach: Gonzalo García
Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 13Paul Bismarck TabinasD
  • 36Sergi DomínguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 80L. KačavendaM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 9D. BeljoF
  • 17L. IvanušecF
Substitutes
  • 14S. PrevljakF
  • 99M. OršićF
  • 20R. MudražijaM
  • 11A. HoxhaF
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 15N. GalešićD
  • 44I. FilipovićG
  • 23Iker AlmenaF
  • 6S. RadeljićD
Coach: Mario Kovacevic

Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
  • W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
  • W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa27 August 2026

Dinamo Zagreb

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb20 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026
  • L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
  • W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026

What these results say

  • HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Dinamo Zagreb scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split139222711+1629
2Dinamo Zagreb128132815+1325

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb

  • 9 May 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 8 March 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 6 December 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 20 September 2025HNK Hajduk Split 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 3 May 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL

The full HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb record →

Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego51
  • A. Sanyang32
  • Carlos Martín31

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo136
  • L. Stojković32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split beat Dinamo Zagreb 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for HNK Hajduk Split at 37%. The goals: Dion Drena Beljo 21' for Dinamo Zagreb, Scott Mckenna (own goal) 24' for HNK Hajduk Split, Abdoulie Sanyang 59' for HNK Hajduk Split. On expected goals it finished 1.13–1.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HNK Hajduk Split a 18.6% chance to win the league: 24.4% after a win, 17.4% after a draw, 11.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.4%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.

For Dinamo Zagreb the question was the chance to win the league, 69.3% going in: 78.0% after a win, 69.0% after a draw, 62.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.5%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.