HNK Hajduk Split
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 36% HNK Hajduk Split, 28% draw, 36% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 1.53, Dinamo Zagreb 1.49.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 36% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
- L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
- W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- W3-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb20 September 2026
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
- W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 9 May 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 8 March 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 6 December 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 20 September 2025HNK Hajduk Split 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 3 May 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 2 March 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Hajduk Split carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.73 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.49 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.76 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.00 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dinamo Zagreb, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Hajduk Split a 21% chance of the title and Dinamo Zagreb 33.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 1.49 for Dinamo Zagreb. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.28 for Dinamo Zagreb.