11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Referee: Patrik Pavlesic
Full time0 – 1

Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 NK Varazdin.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 30% draw, 36% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NK Varazdin at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0%Draw3%NK Varazdin97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Marko Vešović
25'
40'
⚽luka mamicassist: Petar Bočkaj
🔁matija suboticout: Feta Fetai
45'
🔁Marko Vešovićout: Dušan Vuković
45'
🔁jakov vasiljout: Ivan katic
45'
55'
🔁Ivan Posavecout: Sven Lesjak
Kristijan Čabrajić
67'
71'
🔁Petar Bočkajout: Tomislav Duvnjak
🔁Kristijan Čabrajićout: Kayke Rodrigo Souza de Abreu
71'
dominik thaqi
74'
Fran Karačić
75'
78'
🔁Mario Marinaout: David Puclin
🔁dominik thaqiout: Noel Durkovic
80'
82'
Ivan Canjuga
Dušan Vuković
85'

Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

58%Possession42%
12Shots15
4On target2
6Corners5
1.17xG1.15

Goals against chances

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0 from 1.17 xGless than the chances were worth
NK Varazdin1 from 1.15 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. PosavecG
  • 13F. KaračićD
  • 2J. GurlicaD
  • 4T. TriantafyllouD
  • 20K. ČabrajićD
  • 9L. BelcarM
  • 10M. SubotićM
  • 23M. VešovićM
  • 29J. VasiljM
  • 15Dominik ThaqiM
  • 24M. MarićF
Substitutes
  • 16KaykeF
  • 7D. VukovićF
  • 28N. ĐurkovićF
  • 6F. FetaiM
  • 8I. KatićM
  • 11Lovre KulušićF
  • 14M. LorberM
  • 26M. DardanM
  • 32L. SavatovićG
Coach: N. Jelavić
NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilićG
  • 23F. MaglicaD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 16N. TepšićD
  • 3E. DurakovićD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 12P. BočkajM
  • 22L. MamićM
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 10A. LatkovićF
Substitutes
  • 44M. BaraćD
  • 17V. AkrapF
  • 11E. UchegbuF
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
  • 20G. SikošekD
  • 6D. PuclinM
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
  • 19L. LukanićM
  • 5Sven LesjakD
Coach: N. Šafarić

Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb20 September 2026
  • D1-1HNK Rijeka12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026

NK Varazdin

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0NK Osijek19 September 2026
  • D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
  • D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
  • W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Dinamo Zagreb22 August 2026

What these results say

  • NK Lokomotiva Zagreb did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • NK Varazdin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb133281421-711
5NK Varazdin135441714+319

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

  • 27 June 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 NK VarazdinFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 May 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 7 March 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 7 December 2025NK Varazdin 4–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 20 September 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL

Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vuković32

NK Varazdin

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mamić60
  • I. Canjuga33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NK Varazdin won 1–0 at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for NK Varazdin at 36%. The goal: luka mamic 40' for NK Varazdin. On expected goals it finished 1.17–1.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 38.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.9% after a win, 39.4% after a draw, 44.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.0%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.

For NK Varazdin the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 64.4% going in: 70.7% after a win, 63.9% after a draw, 59.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.7%, 6.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.