NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
NK Varazdin
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK Varazdin
The model makes it 34% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 31% draw, 35% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.11, NK Varazdin 1.16.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Varazdin at 35% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb20 September 2026
- D1-1HNK Rijeka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
NK Varazdin
- D0-0NK Osijek19 September 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Zagreb22 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb did not win any of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
- 27 June 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 NK VarazdinFriendlies Clubs
- 9 May 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 7 March 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 7 December 2025NK Varazdin 4–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 20 September 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL
- 26 April 2025NK Varazdin 2–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- D. Vuković3 goals2 assists
NK Varazdin
- I. Canjuga3 goals2 assists
- L. Mamić3 goals
- A. Latković2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.46 for NK Varazdin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.16 for NK Varazdin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.54 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Varazdin rate 0.59 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 0.1% chance of the title and NK Varazdin 9.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Varazdin the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.16 for NK Varazdin. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.31 for NK Varazdin.