NK Slaven Belupo
vs
HNK Rijeka
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Slaven Belupo 0–1 HNK Rijeka
The model makes it 28% NK Slaven Belupo, 30% draw, 42% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: NK Slaven Belupo 0.94, HNK Rijeka 1.41.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 42% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
NK Slaven Belupo
- D2-2away to Rudes18 September 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Gorica22 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
- W3-0HNK Hajduk Split20 September 2026
- D1-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12 September 2026
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 7 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
- 8 April 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoCup
- 4 April 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 24 January 2026HNK Rijeka 2–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 18 October 2025NK Slaven Belupo 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 3 August 2025HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 29 May 2025HNK Rijeka 1–0 NK Slaven BelupoCup
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka
NK Slaven Belupo
- I. Nestorovski5 goals
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei4 goals3 assists
- T. Fruk2 goals3 assists
- Tiago Dantas2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Slaven Belupo carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.53 for HNK Rijeka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.94 goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.41 for HNK Rijeka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.49 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Rijeka rate 0.63 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Slaven Belupo a 0% chance of the title and HNK Rijeka 18.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo against 1.41 for HNK Rijeka. NK Slaven Belupo's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.22 for HNK Rijeka.