NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 4-1 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% NK Slaven Belupo, 29% draw, 45% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
HNK Rijeka at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32I. ČovićG
- 18F. KrušeljD
- 6T. BožićD
- 15J. MersinajD
- 77I. UrataD
- 22A. AdeshinaM
- 17F. MažarM
- 7M. DabroM
- 8L. BanovecM
- 11J. MitrovićM
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 30K. SentićG
- 14Losika RatshukuduF
- 19L. ZahoraF
- 23A. JónssonM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 24L. BošnjakM
- 88D. BosakM
- 4D. KovačićD
- 29Lovro LoncaricF
- 13I. VekičG
- 22A. OrečD
- 45A. MajstorovićD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 8I. ĆubelićM
- 5A. BarcoM
- 4N. JankovićM
- 26Tiago DantasM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 18D. Adu-AdjeiF
- 34M. DevetakD
- 10T. FrukM
- 14A. GojakM
- 15Goran GrulovićF
- 77A. JuričF
- 7Y. KabadayıF
- 12Domagoj Ivan MaricG
- 6B. PaviÄM
- 21J. PuljićF
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
NK Slaven Belupo
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Rudes18 September 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Gorica22 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
All competitions we cover
- W3-0HNK Hajduk Split20 September 2026
- D1-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12 September 2026
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
- L1-4FC Midtjylland27 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
- 8 April 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoCup
- 4 April 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 24 January 2026HNK Rijeka 2–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 18 October 2025NK Slaven Belupo 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 3 August 2025HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski92
- J. Mitrović32
- L. Banovec32
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- T. Fruk54
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- S. Vignato41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NK Slaven Belupo beat HNK Rijeka 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Rijeka at 45% and given a win for NK Slaven Belupo 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tiago Dantas (penalty) 7' for HNK Rijeka, Jon Mersinaj 35' for NK Slaven Belupo, lovro banovec 52' for NK Slaven Belupo, Ilija Nestorovski 68' for NK Slaven Belupo, Ilija Nestorovski 74' for NK Slaven Belupo. On expected goals it finished 1.85–2.14.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Slaven Belupo a 74.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 69.2% after a win, 75.9% after a draw, 77.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.2%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.
For HNK Rijeka the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 77.5% going in: 81.8% after a win, 76.1% after a draw, 72.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.1%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on NK Slaven Belupo v HNK Rijeka has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 28% / 30% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 26% / 29% / 45%: the biggest move is HNK Rijeka's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- NK Slaven Belupo win26%▼ −2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- HNK Rijeka win45%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.