Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 Juan Pablo II College.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Comerciantes Unidos, 28% draw, 31% Juan Pablo II College — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Comerciantes Unidos at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99José Pablo Alejandro Charún ValdezG
- 32J. SánchezD
- 66Paolo Gessu Fuentes VarcárcelD
- 6J. RodriguezD
- 19D. LinoD
- 4A. Martín AriasM
- 20J. ParodiM
- 54Y. GameroM
- 10M. CarpioM
- 9M. SenF
- 13M. PérezF
- 15A. CossioD
- 8W. AyovíF
- 40F. AlcedoD
- 17Matías CordovaG
- 11J. HerreraM
- 50J. OlivaresF
- 28O. PintoM
- 14Thiago SalinasM
- 25Rodrigo Gary Vilca BetettaM
- 23M. VegaG
- 2H. AncajimaD
- 31J. ToledoD
- 60P. MíguezD
- 19P. ReynaD
- 3A. SánchezM
- 18E. RamírezM
- 37Á. RojasM
- 88J. TorresM
- 79J. GoicocheaM
- 89J. PósitoF
- 20H. BazánM
- 14J. CarhuallanquiM
- 28J. DuránM
- 8C. FloresM
- 7A. HendricksF
- 12I. QuispeG
- 15N. RamírezM
- 97M. RodrÃguezF
- 71C. VillanuevaM
Form going into Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College
Comerciantes Unidos
- L1-2away to Alianza Atletico18 September 2026
- L0-1Sport Huancayo12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Universitario6 September 2026
- L2-3FC Cajamarca28 August 2026
Juan Pablo II College
- W4-0UCV Moquegua20 September 2026
- W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca11 September 2026
- D1-1Alianza Lima6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas29 August 2026
What these results say
- Comerciantes Unidos did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 31 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College
- 10 October 2026Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
- 27 June 2026Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Juan Pablo II CollegeCopa De La Liga
- 18 April 2026Juan Pablo II College 2–2 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 24 October 2025Juan Pablo II College 0–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 22 June 2025Comerciantes Unidos 3–0 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
Leading scorers: Comerciantes Unidos and Juan Pablo II College
Comerciantes Unidos
GoalsAssists
- M. Sen92
Juan Pablo II College
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.