NK Osijek
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Osijek 4-2 Dinamo Zagreb.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% NK Osijek, 28% draw, 34% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NK Osijek 1.65, Dinamo Zagreb 1.50.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Osijek at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb
Line-ups
- 31M. MalenicaG
- 22J. KruiverD
- 98Izak JežićD
- 26L. JelenićD
- 2M. HeisterD
- 8Š. MikolčićM
- 23L. VrbancicM
- 48J. JezicM
- 39D. BukvićF
- 79A. LeónF
- 30A. LjatifiF
- 99BaleloF
- 1N. CurcijaG
- 46I. BarićF
- 18Niko FarkašM
- 33E. HasićD
- 47D. KalemD
- 49Ivano KolarikD
- 77S. MustaficD
- 16O. PetrusenkoM
- 24D. KotarskiG
- 25M. ValinčićD
- 36Sergi DomínguezD
- 26S. McKennaD
- 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
- 27J. MišićM
- 23Iker AlmenaM
- 10L. StojkovićM
- 8M. ZajcM
- 11A. HoxhaM
- 14S. PrevljakF
- 44I. FilipovićG
- 15N. GalešićD
- 17L. IvanušecM
- 80L. KačavendaM
- 5K. KravtsovM
- 21M. LisicaF
- 77N. NsokiM
- 99M. OršićF
- 6S. RadeljićD
Form going into NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb
NK Osijek
- L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
- L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
- W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
- W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
- W4-0Rudes14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NK Osijek | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 15 |
| 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 12 September 2026NK Osijek 4–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 4 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 7–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 25 January 2026NK Osijek 0–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 18 October 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 2 August 2025NK Osijek 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 12 April 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK OsijekHNL
Leading scorers: NK Osijek and Dinamo Zagreb
NK Osijek
- A. León5 goals1 assists
- N. Omerović5 goals
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo7 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.65 goals for NK Osijek and 1.50 for Dinamo Zagreb; the game produced 4 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Armando León 12' (NK Osijek), Armando León 35' (NK Osijek), Luka vrbancic 60' (NK Osijek), Miha Zajc 61' (Dinamo Zagreb), Smail Prevljak 90' (Dinamo Zagreb), Domagoj Bukvic 90' (NK Osijek).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Osijek the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for NK Osijek against 1.5 for Dinamo Zagreb. NK Osijek's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.41 for Dinamo Zagreb.