12 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Opus Arena, Osijek
Full time4 – 2

Final score: NK Osijek 4-2 Dinamo Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% NK Osijek, 29% draw, 36% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Osijek99%Draw1%Dinamo Zagreb0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Domagoj Bukvic
2'
⚽Armando Leónassist: Domagoj Bukvic
12'
22'
Luka Stojkovic
Jay Kruiver
24'
⚽Armando León
35'
45'
🔁Iker Almena Horcajoout: Mateo Lisica
45'
🔁Moris Valincicout: Niko Galesic
45'
🔁Luka Stojkovicout: Lukas Kacavenda
Jona Ježić
51'
58'
🔁Arber Hoxhaout: Luka Ivanušec
⚽Luka vrbancicassist: Armando León
60'
61'
⚽Miha Zajc
🔁Simun Mikolcicout: Oleksandr Petrusenko
62'
🔁Jona Ježićout: Ivan Barić
62'
73'
Matteo Perez Vinlöf
77'
🔁Josip Mišićout: Fran Topic
🔁Jay Kruiverout: Luka Posavec
77'
🔁Admir ljatifiout: Balazs Bakti
77'
Luka Jelenic
78'
79'
Fran Topic
🔁Armando Leónout: Niko Farkas
88'
90+2'
⚽Smail Prevljak (pen)
⚽Domagoj Bukvic
90+5'

Match stats — NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb

42%Possession58%
17Shots12
9On target4
2Corners6

Line-ups

NK Osijek 4-3-3
  • 31M. MalenicaG
  • 22J. KruiverD
  • 98Izak JežićD
  • 26L. JelenićD
  • 2M. HeisterD
  • 8Š. MikolčićM
  • 23L. VrbancicM
  • 48J. JezicM
  • 39D. BukvićF
  • 79A. LeónF
  • 30A. LjatifiF
Substitutes
  • 99BaleloF
  • 1N. CurcijaG
  • 46I. BarićF
  • 18Niko FarkašM
  • 33E. HasićD
  • 47D. KalemD
  • 49Ivano KolarikD
  • 77S. MustaficD
  • 16O. PetrusenkoM
Coach: Fede Bessone
Dinamo Zagreb 4-1-4-1
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 25M. ValinčićD
  • 36Sergi DomínguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
  • 27J. MišićM
  • 23Iker AlmenaM
  • 10L. StojkovićM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 11A. HoxhaM
  • 14S. PrevljakF
Substitutes
  • 44I. FilipovićG
  • 15N. GalešićD
  • 17L. IvanušecM
  • 80L. KačavendaM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 77N. NsokiM
  • 99M. OršićF
  • 6S. RadeljićD
Coach: Mario Kovacevic

Form going into NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb

NK Osijek

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
  • W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
  • L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
  • W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026
  • W6-1away to Rudes8 August 2026

Dinamo Zagreb

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Viking26 August 2026
  • W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
  • D2-2Viking18 August 2026

What these results say

  • NK Osijek scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for NK Osijek had three goals or more.
  • Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4NK Osijek115241916+317
2Dinamo Zagreb107122513+1222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb

  • 4 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 7–0 NK OsijekHNL
  • 25 January 2026NK Osijek 0–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 18 October 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 2 August 2025NK Osijek 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 12 April 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK OsijekHNL

Leading scorers: NK Osijek and Dinamo Zagreb

NK Osijek

GoalsAssists

  • A. León61
  • N. Omerović50

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo125
  • N. Galešić30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NK Osijek beat Dinamo Zagreb 4–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Dinamo Zagreb at 36% and given a win for NK Osijek 35%. The goals: Armando León 12' for NK Osijek, Armando León 35' for NK Osijek, Luka vrbancic 60' for NK Osijek, Miha Zajc 61' for Dinamo Zagreb, Smail Prevljak (penalty) 90+2' for Dinamo Zagreb, Domagoj Bukvic 90+5' for NK Osijek.

How the call on NK Osijek v Dinamo Zagreb has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is NK Osijek's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. NK Osijek win35%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Dinamo Zagreb win36%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.