NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 28% draw, 42% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
Line-ups
- 12J. PosavecG
- 13F. KaračićD
- 4T. TriantafyllouD
- 5M. ČabrajaD
- 20K. ČabrajićD
- 6F. FetaiM
- 23M. VešovićM
- 8I. KatićM
- 9L. BelcarM
- 7D. VukovićM
- 28N. ĐurkovićF
- 22M. AntunovićF
- 21T. KralevskiD
- 14M. LorberM
- 26M. DardanM
- 30D. ReicM
- 32L. SavatovićG
- 25P. SmiljanicM
- 10M. SubotićM
- 15Dominik ThaqiF
- 13I. VekičG
- 22A. OrečD
- 45A. MajstorovićD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 8I. ĆubelićM
- 6B. PaviÄM
- 10T. FrukM
- 26Tiago DantasM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 18D. Adu-AdjeiF
- 34M. DevetakD
- 14A. GojakM
- 4N. JankovićM
- 77A. JuričF
- 7Y. KabadayıF
- 1V. KovacG
- 12Domagoj Ivan MarićG
- 9M. MohebiM
- 21J. PuljićF
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
- L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
- W3-1HNK Gorica8 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
All competitions we cover
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
- L1-4FC Midtjylland27 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Midtjylland20 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
- 3 May 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–3 HNK RijekaHNL
- 1 March 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 30 November 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 13 September 2025HNK Rijeka 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 6 April 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- S. Vignato41
- T. Fruk34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Rijeka drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Rijeka at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tiago Dantas 52' for HNK Rijeka, Marko Vešović 65' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
How the call on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v HNK Rijeka has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 34% / 30% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is HNK Rijeka's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win30%▼ −4
- Draw28%▼ −2
- HNK Rijeka win42%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.