NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
HNK Rijeka
HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 29% draw, 37% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.31, HNK Rijeka 1.40.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
Line-ups
- 12J. PosavecG
- 13F. KaračićD
- 4T. TriantafyllouD
- 5M. ČabrajaD
- 20K. ČabrajićD
- 6F. FetaiM
- 23M. VešovićM
- 8I. KatićM
- 9L. BelcarM
- 7D. VukovićM
- 28N. ĐurkovićF
- 22M. AntunovićF
- 21T. KralevskiD
- 14M. LorberM
- 26M. DardanM
- 30D. ReicM
- 32L. SavatovićG
- 25P. SmiljanicM
- 10M. SubotićM
- 15Dominik ThaqiF
- 13I. VekičG
- 22A. OrečD
- 45A. MajstorovićD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 8I. ĆubelićM
- 6B. PaviÄM
- 10T. FrukM
- 26Tiago DantasM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 18D. Adu-AdjeiF
- 34M. DevetakD
- 14A. GojakM
- 4N. JankovićM
- 77A. JuričF
- 7Y. KabadayıF
- 1V. KovacG
- 12Domagoj Ivan MarićG
- 9M. MohebiM
- 21J. PuljićF
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
- L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
- 12 September 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 3 May 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–3 HNK RijekaHNL
- 1 March 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 30 November 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 13 September 2025HNK Rijeka 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 6 April 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- D. Vuković2 goals2 assists
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei3 goals1 assists
- T. Fruk2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.31 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.40 for HNK Rijeka; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Tiago Dantas 52' (HNK Rijeka), Marko Vešović 65' (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.4 for HNK Rijeka. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.46 for HNK Rijeka.