HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Gorica 2-2 NK Varazdin.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% HNK Gorica, 31% draw, 35% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Varazdin at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
Line-ups
- 1R. JosipovićG
- 45S. PerićD
- 32J. FilipovićD
- 15D. StevanovićD
- 5Gonçalo CostaD
- 6T. LacouxM
- 66Juraj FriganM
- 4K. ČustovićM
- 24D. PavičićM
- 25B. BogojevićM
- 9P. MijićF
- 50A. ErcegF
- 2F. BrautD
- 10F. BrodićF
- 26Keenan Nino CaroleF
- 34I. CvijanovićD
- 20L. VrzićF
- 30D. ŽarkovG
- 67Tomislav PrgometM
- 8J. PranjićF
- 33J. SilićG
- 23F. MaglicaD
- 13M. MladenovskiD
- 16N. TepšićD
- 20G. SikošekD
- 28I. CanjugaM
- 24M. MarinaM
- 10A. LatkovićM
- 22L. MamićM
- 38Iuri TavaresM
- 9S. JurićF
- 11E. UchegbuF
- 4L. ŠkaričićD
- 30L. PosinkovicD
- 21I. PosavecM
- 1R. McCrorieG
- 5Sven LesjakD
- 8T. DuvnjakM
- 3E. DurakovićD
- 12P. BočkajD
Form going into HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
- D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
- L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026
- L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
NK Varazdin
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Zagreb22 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Rijeka16 August 2026
- W4-1away to NK Slaven Belupo9 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica did not win any of these 5 matches.
- HNK Gorica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 7 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
- 3 April 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 4 March 2026NK Varazdin 1–3 HNK GoricaCup
- 26 January 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 NK VarazdinHNL
- 19 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 NK VarazdinHNL
- 4 August 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić40
- I. Canjuga32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Varazdin at 35% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Bruno Bogojević 53' for HNK Gorica, luka mamic 57' for NK Varazdin, Valentin Akrap 85' for NK Varazdin, ivan cvijanovic 90+5' for HNK Gorica.
How the call on HNK Gorica v NK Varazdin has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is NK Varazdin's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- HNK Gorica win34%▲ +1
- Draw31%▲ +1
- NK Varazdin win35%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.