Regular Season - 7 · 14 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica
Full time2 – 2

Final score: HNK Gorica 2-2 NK Varazdin.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% HNK Gorica, 29% draw, 32% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: HNK Gorica 1.45, NK Varazdin 1.20.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

54%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 10%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Gorica at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Gorica0%Draw4%NK Varazdin96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

frigan juraj
16'
🔁Kevin Custovicout: Filip Braut
45'
Tom Lacoux
50'
⚽Bruno Bogojevićassist: frigan juraj
53'
57'
⚽luka mamicassist: Stipe Jurić
🔁Patrik Mijicout: Fran Brodić
57'
🔁Tom Lacouxout: Ognjen Bakic
57'
🔁Goncalo Costaout: ivan cvijanovic
62'
63'
🔁Ivan Canjugaout: Tomislav Duvnjak
63'
🔁Stipe Jurićout: Valentin Akrap
63'
🔁Iuri Tavaresout: Emmanuel Uchegbu Chimeroucheya
78'
Mario Marina
🔁Domagoj Pavičićout: Luka Vrzic
81'
85'
🔁Aleksa Latkovicout: Ivan Posavec
85'
⚽Valentin Akrap
88'
🔁luka mamicout: Luka Skaricic
⚽ivan cvijanovic
90+5'

Match stats — HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

38%Possession62%
10Shots20
4On target8
1Corners3

Line-ups

HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. JosipovićG
  • 45S. PerićD
  • 32J. FilipovićD
  • 15D. StevanovićD
  • 5Gonçalo CostaD
  • 6T. LacouxM
  • 66Juraj FriganM
  • 4K. ČustovićM
  • 24D. PavičićM
  • 25B. BogojevićM
  • 9P. MijićF
Substitutes
  • 50A. ErcegF
  • 2F. BrautD
  • 10F. BrodićF
  • 26Keenan Nino CaroleF
  • 34I. CvijanovićD
  • 20L. VrzićF
  • 30D. ŽarkovG
  • 67Tomislav PrgometM
  • 8J. PranjićF
Coach: M. Carević
NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilićG
  • 23F. MaglicaD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 16N. TepšićD
  • 20G. SikošekD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 10A. LatkovićM
  • 22L. MamićM
  • 38Iuri TavaresM
  • 9S. JurićF
Substitutes
  • 11E. UchegbuF
  • 4L. ŠkaričićD
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 1R. McCrorieG
  • 5Sven LesjakD
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
  • 3E. DurakovićD
  • 12P. BočkajD
Coach: N. Šafarić

Form going into HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

HNK Gorica

  • L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
  • D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
  • L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
  • L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026

NK Varazdin

  • D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
  • W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Dinamo Zagreb22 August 2026
  • W2-0HNK Rijeka16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10HNK Gorica7025412-82
3NK Varazdin7421137+614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

  • 14 September 2026HNK Gorica 2–2 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 3 April 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 4 March 2026NK Varazdin 1–3 HNK GoricaCup
  • 26 January 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 19 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 4 August 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin

HNK Gorica

  • B. Bogojević3 goals

NK Varazdin

  • I. Canjuga3 goals2 assists
  • L. Mamić3 goals
  • A. Latković2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.45 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.20 for NK Varazdin; the game produced 2 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Bruno Bogojević 53' (HNK Gorica), luka mamic 57' (NK Varazdin), Valentin Akrap 85' (NK Varazdin), ivan cvijanovic 90' (HNK Gorica).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives HNK Gorica the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for HNK Gorica against 1.2 for NK Varazdin. HNK Gorica's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.44 for NK Varazdin.