Genoa vs Frosinone Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Genoa, 29% draw, 28% Frosinone — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Genoa at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Genoa vs Frosinone
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Justin BijlowG
- 27Alessandro MarcandalliD
- 5Leo ØstigårdD
- 22Johan VásquezD
- 3Kingsley EhizibueM
- 32Morten FrendrupM
- 8Tommaso BaldanziM
- 97Djibril SowM
- 77Mikael EllertssonM
- 29Lorenzo ColomboF
- 18Milutin OsmajićF
- 10Junior MessiasF
- 92Stephan El ShaarawyF
- 9VitinhaF
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 11Franz-Ethan MeichtryM
- 99Franz StolzG
- 39Daniele SommarivaG
- 34Sebastian OtoaD
- 31David PuczkaD
- 22Lorenzo PalmisaniG
- 20Anthony OyonoD
- 3Gabriele CalvaniD
- 2Giorgio CittadiniD
- 79Gabriele BracagliaD
- 14Giacomo CalòM
- 73Patrizio MasiniM
- 7Farès GhedjemisM
- 10Romano SchmidM
- 17Giorgi KvernadzeM
- 9Antonio RaimondoF
- 30Ilario MonterisiD
- 70Luis HasaM
- 89Tomáš BobčekF
- 40Seydou FiniF
- 24Alessio ZerbinF
- 91Sebastiano DesplanchesG
- 12Matteo PisseriG
- 90Enzo Tchato MbiayiD
- 5Wisdom AmeyD
Form going into Genoa vs Frosinone
Genoa
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
- L0-2Napoli22 August 2026
Frosinone
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
- L0-1Juventus23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Genoa | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Frosinone
- 30 March 2024Genoa 1–1 FrosinoneSerie A
- 26 November 2023Frosinone 2–1 GenoaSerie A
- 13 May 2023Frosinone 3–2 GenoaSerie B
- 18 December 2022Genoa 1–0 FrosinoneSerie B
- 3 March 2019Genoa 0–0 FrosinoneSerie A
Leading scorers: Genoa and Frosinone
Genoa
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo80
- G. Calò41
- G. Kvernadze33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Genoa and Frosinone drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Genoa at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: G. Kvernadze 14' for Frosinone, J. Vasquez 50' for Genoa. Sent off: J. Vasquez (Genoa) 87'. On expected goals it finished 1.86–2.03.