13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo HNL prediction & result

Stadion Poljud, Split
Full time1 – 0

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 NK Slaven Belupo.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% HNK Hajduk Split, 25% draw, 21% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Hajduk Split98%Draw2%NK Slaven Belupo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Adrion Pajaziti
12'
20'
Karlo Isasegi
⚽Dalisson De Almeida Leiteassist: Abdoulie Sanyang
22'
Dalisson De Almeida Leite
44'
45+1'
Filip mazar
45'
🔁Karlo Isasegiout: Antonio jakir
45'
🔁Leon Bošnjakout: David Bosak
🔁Alberto del Moralout: Khalil Fayad
62'
🔁marin soticekout: Carlos Martín Domínguez
62'
🔁Abdoulie Sanyangout: Adam Huram
72'
79'
Filip mazar
🔁Michele Šegoout: Marko Livaja
80'
80'
🔁Ilija Nestorovskiout: Losika Ratshukudu
Dario Marešić
83'
90+2'
🔁Adeshina Adetunji out: Jon Mersinaj
90+5'
Losika Ratshukudu

Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo

68%Possession32%
9Shots7
1On target2
3Corners4

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilićG
  • 22M. AcapandiéD
  • 15D. MarešićD
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 32Š. HrgovićD
  • 20Alberto del MoralM
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 9DaliM
  • 23M. ŠotičekM
  • 11M. ŠegoF
Substitutes
  • 19E. BrrutiM
  • 8K. FayadM
  • 99D. FesyukG
  • 6D. HadžikadunićD
  • 38L. HodakD
  • 26A. GuramM
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 77Carlos MartínF
  • 17D. MelnjakD
Coach: Gonzalo García
NK Slaven Belupo 4-2-3-1
  • 30K. SentićG
  • 27A. GrgićD
  • 6T. BožićD
  • 4D. KovačićD
  • 33K. IšasegiD
  • 22A. AdeshinaM
  • 17F. MažarM
  • 7M. DabroM
  • 24L. BošnjakM
  • 11J. MitrovićM
  • 90I. NestorovskiF
Substitutes
  • 8L. BanovecF
  • 5I. CvetkoD
  • 88D. BosakM
  • 21L. CrepuljaM
  • 3A. JakirD
  • 23A. JónssonM
  • 15J. MersinajD
  • 45V. PapacF
  • 14Losika RatshukuduF
Coach: S. Čabraja

Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo

HNK Hajduk Split

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
  • W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa27 August 2026
  • W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
  • D2-2Raków Częstochowa20 August 2026

NK Slaven Belupo

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
  • L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
  • W2-0HNK Gorica22 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Istra 196115 August 2026
  • L1-4NK Varazdin9 August 2026

What these results say

  • HNK Hajduk Split went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • NK Slaven Belupo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for NK Slaven Belupo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split117222111+1023
7NK Slaven Belupo114161423-913

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo

  • 17 April 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 7 February 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 2 November 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 17 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 3–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 5 April 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and NK Slaven Belupo

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego51
  • M. Livaja30
  • A. Sanyang22

NK Slaven Belupo

GoalsAssists

  • I. Nestorovski72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split beat NK Slaven Belupo 1–0. The model had made a win for HNK Hajduk Split its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Dalisson De Almeida Leite 22' for HNK Hajduk Split. Sent off: Filip mazar (NK Slaven Belupo) 79'.

How the call on HNK Hajduk Split v NK Slaven Belupo has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is HNK Hajduk Split's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. HNK Hajduk Split win54%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. NK Slaven Belupo win21%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.