HNK Hajduk Split
vs
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 NK Slaven Belupo.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% HNK Hajduk Split, 29% draw, 22% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 1.72, NK Slaven Belupo 0.78.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo
Line-ups
- 33T. SilićG
- 22M. AcapandiéD
- 15D. MarešićD
- 14R. RaciD
- 32Š. HrgovićD
- 20Alberto del MoralM
- 4A. PajazitiM
- 7A. SanyangM
- 9DaliM
- 23M. ŠotičekM
- 11M. ŠegoF
- 19E. BrrutiM
- 8K. FayadM
- 99D. FesyukG
- 6D. HadžikadunićD
- 38L. HodakD
- 26A. GuramM
- 10M. LivajaF
- 77Carlos MartínF
- 17D. MelnjakD
- 30K. SentićG
- 27A. GrgićD
- 6T. BožićD
- 4D. KovačićD
- 33K. IšasegiD
- 22A. AdeshinaM
- 17F. MažarM
- 7M. DabroM
- 24L. BošnjakM
- 11J. MitrovićM
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 8L. BanovecF
- 5I. CvetkoD
- 88D. BosakM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 3A. JakirD
- 23A. JónssonM
- 15J. MersinajD
- 45V. PapacF
- 14Losika RatshukuduF
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Hajduk Split
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
- W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Gorica22 August 2026
- L0-3away to Istra 196115 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 13 September 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 17 April 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 7 February 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 2 November 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 17 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 3–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 5 April 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists
NK Slaven Belupo
- I. Nestorovski3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.72 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 0.78 for NK Slaven Belupo; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Dalisson De Almeida Leite 22' (HNK Hajduk Split).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 0.78 for NK Slaven Belupo. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.71 for NK Slaven Belupo.