13 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Istra 1961 vs Rudes HNL prediction & result

Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Istra 1961 3-2 Rudes.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Istra 1961, 27% draw, 22% Rudes — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Istra 1961 at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Istra 196197%Draw3%Rudes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Emil Frederiksen (pen)
11'
⚽Emil Frederiksenassist: Nik Skafar Zuzic
28'
35'
Marko Stolnik
45'
🔁Toni Kolegaout: Lenny Ilecic
45'
🔁Noa skokoout: Cheick Tidiane Diabaté
hamza jaganjac
58'
⚽Emil Frederiksenassist: Dukan Ahmeti
58'
🔁hamza jaganjacout: Isaac Aguiar Tomich
65'
🔁Nik Skafar Zuzicout: vinko rozic
66'
67'
🔁Xavier Cabrita Fernandesout: Vid Seitz
67'
🔁Saad El Haddadout: Jurica Poldrugac
70'
Lovre Rogić
🔁vinko rozicout: Stipe Ukich
73'
77'
🔁Marko Stolnikout: Vedran Celjak
🔁Emil Frederiksenout: Matija Kablar
82'
🔁Rene Hrvatinout: Advan Kadušić
82'
85'
⚽cherno saho
89'
⚽Lenny Ilecicassist: Vid Seitz

Match stats — Istra 1961 vs Rudes

57%Possession43%
11Shots15
4On target5
2Corners4

Line-ups

Istra 1961 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. KolićG
  • 44R. HrvatinD
  • 4R. KumarD
  • 16S. MiettinenD
  • 13Niko ŠepićD
  • 88D. DoumbiaM
  • 8A. MaurićM
  • 22E. FrederiksenM
  • 20D. AhmetiM
  • 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
  • 94H. JaganjacF
Substitutes
  • 9IsaacF
  • 12Roko BanovacG
  • 27D. CelijaF
  • 11S. GoričanF
  • 5D. HodzicM
  • 23S. UkichM
  • 7V. RozićF
  • 40J. Paus-KunštG
  • 3M. NasraouiD
Coach: Javier Cabello
Rudes 4-2-3-1
  • 95L. RogićG
  • 44F. TarabaD
  • 42M. ZebićD
  • 5M. StolnikD
  • 2B. UnušićD
  • 24I. ĐorićM
  • 37N. SkokoM
  • 14T. KolegaM
  • 28XaviM
  • 88S. El HaddadM
  • 19Cherno SahoF
Substitutes
  • 32S. DuvnjakG
  • 78J. FernándesF
  • 7L. IlečićF
  • 33J. PejicF
  • 11J. PoldrugačM
  • 10V. SeitzM
  • 26I. ŽutićD
  • 4V. CeljakD
  • 35Josip BralicF
Coach: A. Peternac

Form going into Istra 1961 vs Rudes

Istra 1961

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
  • D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026
  • L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
  • W3-0NK Slaven Belupo15 August 2026
  • D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split9 August 2026

Rudes

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to NK Varazdin29 August 2026
  • W4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Dinamo Zagreb14 August 2026
  • L1-6NK Osijek8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Istra 1961 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Istra 1961 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Istra 1961 had three goals or more.
  • Rudes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rudes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Rudes had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Istra 1961113441918+113
9Rudes113171427-1310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs Rudes

  • 30 October 2024Rudes 1–2 Istra 1961Cup
  • 3 May 2024Rudes 1–3 Istra 1961HNL
  • 24 February 2024Istra 1961 2–1 RudesHNL
  • 11 November 2023Rudes 0–4 Istra 1961HNL
  • 27 August 2023Istra 1961 0–0 RudesHNL

Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and Rudes

Istra 1961

GoalsAssists

  • E. Frederiksen84
  • H. Jaganjac51
  • D. Ahmeti34

Rudes

GoalsAssists

  • N. Skoko30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Istra 1961 beat Rudes 3–2. The model had made a win for Istra 1961 its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Emil Frederiksen (penalty) 11' for Istra 1961, Emil Frederiksen 28' for Istra 1961, Emil Frederiksen 58' for Istra 1961, cherno saho 85' for Rudes, Lenny Ilecic 89' for Rudes.

How the call on Istra 1961 v Rudes has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Rudes's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Istra 1961 win51%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Rudes win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.