Istra 1961
vs
Rudes
HNL prediction & result
Final score: Istra 1961 3-2 Rudes.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Istra 1961, 26% draw, 23% Rudes — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Istra 1961 2.20, Rudes 1.07.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Istra 1961 vs Rudes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Istra 1961 at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Istra 1961 vs Rudes
Line-ups
- 1F. KolićG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 4R. KumarD
- 16S. MiettinenD
- 13Niko ŠepićD
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 8A. MaurićM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 94H. JaganjacF
- 9IsaacF
- 12Roko BanovacG
- 27D. CelijaF
- 11S. GoričanF
- 5D. HodzicM
- 23S. UkichM
- 7V. RozićF
- 40J. Paus-KunštG
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 95L. RogićG
- 44F. TarabaD
- 42M. ZebiÄD
- 5M. StolnikD
- 2B. UnušićD
- 24I. ĐorićM
- 37N. SkokoM
- 14T. KolegaM
- 28XaviM
- 88S. El HaddadM
- 19Cherno SahoF
- 32S. DuvnjakG
- 78J. FernándesF
- 7L. IlečićF
- 33J. PejicF
- 11J. PoldrugačM
- 10V. SeitzM
- 26I. ŽutićD
- 4V. CeljakD
- 35Josip BralicF
Form going into Istra 1961 vs Rudes
Istra 1961
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026
- L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo15 August 2026
Rudes
- L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin29 August 2026
- W4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 August 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Zagreb14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Rudes | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs Rudes
- 13 September 2026Istra 1961 3–2 RudesHNL
- 30 October 2024Rudes 1–2 Istra 1961Cup
- 3 May 2024Rudes 1–3 Istra 1961HNL
- 24 February 2024Istra 1961 2–1 RudesHNL
- 11 November 2023Rudes 0–4 Istra 1961HNL
- 27 August 2023Istra 1961 0–0 RudesHNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and Rudes
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen7 goals2 assists
- H. Jaganjac4 goals1 assists
- D. Ahmeti2 goals3 assists
Rudes
- L. Ilečić2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.20 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.07 for Rudes; the game produced 3 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Emil Frederiksen 11' (Istra 1961), Emil Frederiksen 28' (Istra 1961), Emil Frederiksen 58' (Istra 1961), cherno saho 85' (Rudes), Lenny Ilecic 89' (Rudes).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Istra 1961 the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Istra 1961 against 1.07 for Rudes. Istra 1961's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.08 for Rudes.