Atalanta vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Atalanta, 30% draw, 28% Cagliari — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atalanta at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atalanta vs Cagliari
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 3O. KossounouD
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 23S. KolasinacD
- 10L. SamardzicM
- 19F. KessieM
- 13EdersonM
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 11J. RoweF
- 57M. SportielloG
- 22T. PompeiG
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 40R. ObricD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 99E. ElmasM
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 8M. PasalicM
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2J. PedroD
- 14A. DeiolaD
- 15J. RodriguezD
- 33A. ObertD
- 8M. AdopoM
- 4A. RomanoM
- 6H. WinksM
- 10J. FazziniM
- 70D. MaldiniF
- 31P. MendyF
- 23B. RadunovicG
- 12A. SherriG
- 26Y. MinaD
- 28Y. SugawaraD
- 24G. AurelioD
- 32I. SulevM
- 27J. LitetaM
- 30D. AkarakiriM
- 21R. GagliardiniM
Form going into Atalanta vs Cagliari
Atalanta
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hapoel Tel Aviv27 August 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026
- D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv20 August 2026
Cagliari
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Cagliari | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Cagliari
- 27 April 2026Cagliari 3–2 AtalantaSerie A
- 13 December 2025Atalanta 2–1 CagliariSerie A
- 15 February 2025Atalanta 0–0 CagliariSerie A
- 14 December 2024Cagliari 0–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 7 April 2024Cagliari 2–1 AtalantaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Cagliari
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović62
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cagliari won 2–1 at Atalanta. The model had leaned towards a win for Atalanta at 42% and given a win for Cagliari 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: P. Mendy 19' for Cagliari, G. Scamacca 41' for Atalanta, D. Maldini (penalty) 61' for Cagliari. On expected goals it finished 1.26–1.10.
How the call on Atalanta v Cagliari has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Cagliari's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Atalanta win42%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Cagliari win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.