Regular Season - 4 · 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Atalanta vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result

New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Atalanta, 30% draw, 29% Cagliari — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Atalanta 1.45, Cagliari 1.02.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Atalanta vs Cagliari

50%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 12%0-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atalanta at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atalanta0%Draw4%Cagliari96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽P. Mendyassist: M. Adopo
⚽G. Scamaccaassist: C. De Ketelaere
41'
57'
🔁J. Fazziniout: A. Fadera
61'
⚽D. Maldini (pen)
🔁S. Kolasinacout: L. Bernasconi
68'
🔁G. Scamaccaout: N. Krstovic
68'
68'
🔁J. Pedroout: Y. Sugawara
🔁L. Samardzicout: G. Raspadori
77'
79'
🔁D. Maldiniout: R. Kofler
79'
🔁P. Mendyout: Kevin
🔁F. Kessieout: M. Pasalic
86'

Match stats — Atalanta vs Cagliari

62%Possession38%
22Shots5
4On target5
3Corners2
1.26xG1.1

Goals against chances

Atalanta1 from 1.26 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cagliari2 from 1.10 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atalanta 4-3-3
  • 29M. CarnesecchiG
  • 16R. BellanovaD
  • 3O. KossounouD
  • 42G. ScalviniD
  • 23S. KolasinacD
  • 10L. SamardzicM
  • 19F. KessieM
  • 13EdersonM
  • 17C. De KetelaereF
  • 9G. ScamaccaF
  • 11J. RoweF
Substitutes
  • 57M. SportielloG
  • 22T. PompeiG
  • 77D. ZappacostaD
  • 40R. ObricD
  • 31T. KristensenD
  • 99E. ElmasM
  • 47L. BernasconiD
  • 8M. PasalicM
  • 59N. ZalewskiM
Coach: Maurizio Sarri
Cagliari 4-4-1-1
  • 1E. CaprileG
  • 2J. PedroD
  • 14A. DeiolaD
  • 15J. RodriguezD
  • 33A. ObertD
  • 8M. AdopoM
  • 4A. RomanoM
  • 6H. WinksM
  • 10J. FazziniM
  • 70D. MaldiniF
  • 31P. MendyF
Substitutes
  • 23B. RadunovicG
  • 12A. SherriG
  • 26Y. MinaD
  • 28Y. SugawaraD
  • 24G. AurelioD
  • 32I. SulevM
  • 27J. LitetaM
  • 30D. AkarakiriM
  • 21R. GagliardiniM
Coach: Fabio Pisacane

Form going into Atalanta vs Cagliari

Atalanta

  • L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
  • W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
  • W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026

Cagliari

  • W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
  • L0-1Inter30 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Atalanta42025506
5Cagliari430142+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Cagliari

  • 12 September 2026Atalanta 1–2 CagliariSerie A
  • 27 April 2026Cagliari 3–2 AtalantaSerie A
  • 13 December 2025Atalanta 2–1 CagliariSerie A
  • 15 February 2025Atalanta 0–0 CagliariSerie A
  • 14 December 2024Cagliari 0–1 AtalantaSerie A
  • 7 April 2024Cagliari 2–1 AtalantaSerie A

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.45 goals for Atalanta and 1.02 for Cagliari; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: P. Mendy 19' (Cagliari), G. Scamacca 41' (Atalanta), D. Maldini 61' (Cagliari).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Atalanta against 1.02 for Cagliari. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/0.9 for Cagliari.