Newcastle vs Hull City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Newcastle 2-1 Hull City.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Newcastle, 29% draw, 30% Hull City — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newcastle at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newcastle vs Hull City
Line-ups
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 67L. MileyD
- 12M. ThiawD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 3L. HallD
- 14Sean SteurM
- 28J. WillockM
- 23J. MurphyM
- 20M. Fernandez-PardoM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 9Y. WissaF
- 76M. MileyM
- 17B. TouréF
- 8A. BambaM
- 5F. SchärD
- 48Miodrag PivašD
- 1N. PopeG
- 49V. SaliaF
- 44K. ThompsonF
- 77M. MillsF
- 19K. TzolakisG
- 2L. CoyleD
- 6S. AjayiD
- 15J. EganD
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 3R. GilesD
- 10M. BelloumiM
- 25M. CrooksM
- 27R. SlaterM
- 7S. ThomasM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 50M. ChoF
- 12D. PhillipsG
- 17P. McNairD
- 11J. GelhardtF
- 14J. Hjertø-DahlM
- 21E. StroudM
- 29L. Gourna-DouathM
- 42T. IroegbunamM
- 47R. VazF
Form going into Newcastle vs Hull City
Newcastle
Premier League
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
Hull City
Premier League
- D2-2away to Chelsea12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Hull City
- 27 July 2024Hull City 0–2 NewcastleFriendlies Clubs
- 29 November 2016Hull City 1–1 NewcastleLeague Cup
- 31 January 2015Hull City 0–3 NewcastlePremier League
- 20 September 2014Newcastle 2–2 Hull CityPremier League
- 1 March 2014Hull City 1–4 NewcastlePremier League
Leading scorers: Newcastle and Hull City
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Newcastle beat Hull City 2–1. The model had made a win for Newcastle its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Joe Willock 3' for Newcastle, Lewis Hall 7' for Newcastle, Mohamed Ali Cho 67' for Hull City.
How the call on Newcastle v Hull City has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Newcastle's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Newcastle win41%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Hull City win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.