Nottingham Forest vs Coventry Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Nottingham Forest, 28% draw, 22% Coventry — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nottingham Forest at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nottingham Forest vs Coventry
Line-ups
- 26M. SelsG
- 23JairD
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 5MurilloD
- 27D. MuñozM
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 14D. NdoyeM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 19L. DelapF
- 11Igor JesusF
- 9C. WoodF
- 22R. YatesM
- 8N. DomínguezM
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 6I. SangaréM
- 34O. AinaD
- 25L. NetzD
- 12JohnG
- 19C. RushworthG
- 12S. MfuniD
- 4B. ThomasD
- 2E. PinnockD
- 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
- 16F. OnyekaM
- 6M. GrimesM
- 3J. DasilvaM
- 5J. RudoniM
- 10E. Mason-ClarkM
- 23B. Thomas-AsanteF
- 49S. CherifF
- 34Y. GbohoF
- 9E. SimmsF
- 38G. HamerM
- 29V. TorpM
- 17L. TchaounaF
- 7T. SakamotoM
- 22J. LatibeaudiereD
- 25D. BentleyG
Form going into Nottingham Forest vs Coventry
Nottingham Forest
Premier League
- W2-1away to Aston Villa12 September 2026
Coventry
Premier League
- L0-5Brighton13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Coventry
- 8 July 2022Nottingham Forest 1–3 CoventryFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2022Nottingham Forest 2–0 CoventryChampionship
- 8 August 2021Coventry 2–1 Nottingham ForestChampionship
- 2 February 2021Coventry 1–2 Nottingham ForestChampionship
- 4 November 2020Nottingham Forest 2–1 CoventryChampionship
The result against the call
Coventry won 1–0 at Nottingham Forest. The model had leaned towards a win for Nottingham Forest at 50% and given a win for Coventry 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Jay Dasilva 55' for Coventry.
How the call on Nottingham Forest v Coventry has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Nottingham Forest's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Nottingham Forest win50%▲ +7
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Coventry win22%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.