Tottenham
vs
Aston Villa
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Tottenham 1–0 Aston Villa
The model makes it 35% Tottenham, 32% draw, 33% Aston Villa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.13 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tottenham 1.15, Aston Villa 1.08.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Tottenham wins, grey are draws, red are Aston Villa wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tottenham at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Tottenham
- D0-0Everton12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Nottingham Forest5 September 2026
- L0-2Newcastle29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Brentford22 August 2026
Aston Villa
- L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
- L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tottenham vs Aston Villa
- 3 May 2026Aston Villa 1–2 TottenhamPremier League
- 10 January 2026Tottenham 1–2 Aston VillaFA Cup
- 19 October 2025Tottenham 1–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- 16 May 2025Aston Villa 2–0 TottenhamPremier League
- 9 February 2025Aston Villa 2–1 TottenhamFA Cup
- 3 November 2024Tottenham 4–1 Aston VillaPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tottenham carry a model rating of 6.92 against 7.01 for Aston Villa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Tottenham and 1.08 for Aston Villa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tottenham rate 0.82 in attack and 0.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aston Villa rate 1.19 and 0.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Tottenham against 1.08 for Aston Villa. Tottenham's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/0.86 for Aston Villa.