Tottenham vs Aston Villa Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Tottenham, 31% draw, 33% Aston Villa — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tottenham at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Line-ups
- 31A. KinskýG
- 23Pedro PorroD
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 37M. van de VenD
- 3A. RobertsonD
- 30R. BentancurM
- 16S. TonaliM
- 17SávioM
- 18Mateus FernandesM
- 22Omar MarmoushM
- 19D. SolankeF
- 15L. BergvallM
- 20M. KudusM
- 39M. DúbravkaG
- 4T. AdarabioyoD
- 5M. SenesiD
- 13D. UdogieD
- 8C. GallagherM
- 10J. MaddisonM
- 14A. GrayM
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5T. MingsD
- 13M. RuggeriD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 35João GomesM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 2M. CashD
- 4T. Harwood-BellisD
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 26L. BogardeM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 19I. MbayeF
- 42J. WrightG
Form going into Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Tottenham
Premier League
- D0-0Everton12 September 2026
Aston Villa
Premier League
- L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tottenham vs Aston Villa
- 3 May 2026Aston Villa 1–2 TottenhamPremier League
- 10 January 2026Tottenham 1–2 Aston VillaFA Cup
- 19 October 2025Tottenham 1–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- 16 May 2025Aston Villa 2–0 TottenhamPremier League
- 9 February 2025Aston Villa 2–1 TottenhamFA Cup
Leading scorers: Tottenham and Aston Villa
Tottenham
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aston Villa won 3–2 at Tottenham. The model had leaned towards a win for Tottenham at 36% and given a win for Aston Villa 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Johan Manzambi 45+4' for Aston Villa, Nicolas Jackson 67' for Aston Villa, Emiliano Buendía 79' for Aston Villa, Conor Gallagher 86' for Tottenham, Jan Paul van Hecke 90+8' for Tottenham.
How the call on Tottenham v Aston Villa has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 36% / 31% / 33%: the biggest move is Tottenham's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Tottenham win36%▼ −4
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Aston Villa win33%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.