OH Leuven
vs
RAAL La Louvière
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: OH Leuven 2–1 RAAL La Louvière
The model makes it 39% OH Leuven, 28% draw, 33% RAAL La Louvière — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: OH Leuven 1.62, RAAL La Louvière 1.36.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: OH Leuven vs RAAL La Louvière
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are OH Leuven wins, grey are draws, red are RAAL La Louvière wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts OH Leuven at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into OH Leuven vs RAAL La Louvière
OH Leuven
- D1-1Cercle Brugge12 September 2026
- L0-3away to SK Beveren6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Gent3 September 2026
- L1-2Standard Liege29 August 2026
- L0-3Club Brugge KV15 August 2026
RAAL La Louvière
- W3-0Kortrijk13 September 2026
- L0-4away to St. Truiden5 September 2026
- D2-2KV Mechelen29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Standard Liege21 August 2026
- L1-2Gent16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | OH Leuven | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: OH Leuven vs RAAL La Louvière
- 27 December 2025RAAL La Louvière 0–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 20 September 2025OH Leuven 1–2 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: OH Leuven and RAAL La Louvière
OH Leuven
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
RAAL La Louvière
- M. Ubandoma5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
OH Leuven carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.65 for RAAL La Louvière. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for OH Leuven and 1.36 for RAAL La Louvière. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OH Leuven rate 0.72 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RAAL La Louvière rate 0.92 and 1.38.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour RAAL La Louvière, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OH Leuven the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for OH Leuven against 1.36 for RAAL La Louvière. OH Leuven's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.38 for RAAL La Louvière.