Newcastle
vs
Everton
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Newcastle 2–1 Everton
The model makes it 38% Newcastle, 27% draw, 35% Everton — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Newcastle 1.50, Everton 1.44.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 904 settled matches.
A tight game: Newcastle and Everton are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Newcastle's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Everton's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 829 matches.
Key facts
- Newcastle are 11th on 8 points from 7 games; Everton are 8th on 10 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Newcastle have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Aston Villa.
- Everton have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Chelsea.
- Last 6 meetings: Everton 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 August 2026, ended Newcastle 1–3 Everton.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newcastle vs Everton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newcastle at 38% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 3,310 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Newcastle vs Everton
Newcastle
- L0-1Aston Villa17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
- W2-1Hull City19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
Everton
- L0-2Chelsea17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026
- W1-0Ipswich19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tottenham12 September 2026
- D2-2Manchester United6 September 2026
What these results say
- Newcastle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Everton
- 12 August 2026Newcastle 1–3 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
- 28 February 2026Newcastle 2–3 EvertonPremier League
- 29 November 2025Everton 1–4 NewcastlePremier League
- 25 May 2025Newcastle 0–1 EvertonPremier League
- 5 October 2024Everton 0–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 2 April 2024Newcastle 1–1 EvertonPremier League
Leading scorers: Newcastle and Everton
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Newcastle carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.86 for Everton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Newcastle and 1.44 for Everton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newcastle rate 1.04 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Everton rate 0.90 and 0.90.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Everton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newcastle the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Newcastle against 1.44 for Everton. Newcastle's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.9 for Everton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newcastle at home · Everton away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NewcastleEverton
Newcastle are 11th after 7 Premier League matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Everton are 6th after 7 (between 2nd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Newcastle 7, Everton 7.
Everton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Newcastle have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Newcastle
- at Fulham7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Arsenal21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- at Brighton29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- vs Manchester United2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Everton
- vs Coventry6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at Brentford23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Liverpool29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Aston Villa2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.