Krylia Sovetov
vs
Zenit
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Krylia Sovetov 1–2 Zenit
The model makes it 24% Krylia Sovetov, 25% draw, 51% Zenit — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Krylia Sovetov 1.20, Zenit 1.94.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Zenit are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Krylia Sovetov's rating is built from 41 Russian Premier League matches and Zenit's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 575 matches.
Key facts
- Krylia Sovetov are 11th on 12 points from 11 games; Zenit are 2nd on 24 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- Krylia Sovetov are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Fakel.
- Zenit are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Akhmat.
- Last 6 meetings: Zenit 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 August 2026, ended Krylia Sovetov 0–0 Zenit.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zenit at 51% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit
Krylia Sovetov
- L1-2Fakel17 October 2026
- D1-1Spartak Moscow10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv16 September 2026
- W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
Zenit
- W3-2Akhmat18 October 2026
- W3-2away to FC Krasnodar10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Baltika16 September 2026
- W2-1Lokomotiv12 September 2026
- L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
What these results say
- Krylia Sovetov scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Krylia Sovetov.
- Zenit scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zenit conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Zenit had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 12 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit
- 19 August 2026Krylia Sovetov 0–0 ZenitCup
- 4 April 2026Zenit 2–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 9 November 2025Krylia Sovetov 1–1 ZenitPremier League
- 1 December 2024Zenit 2–3 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 20 July 2024Krylia Sovetov 0–4 ZenitPremier League
- 30 March 2024Krylya Sovetov 1–1 Zenit Saint PetersburgPremier League
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Zenit
Krylia Sovetov
GoalsAssists
- M. Kramarič31
Zenit
GoalsAssists
- M. Glushenkov92
- A. Sobolev82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Krylia Sovetov carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.55 for Zenit. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.94 for Zenit. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Krylia Sovetov rate 0.54 in attack and 2.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zenit rate 0.78 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Krylia Sovetov a 0% chance of the title and Zenit 39.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zenit the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov against 1.94 for Zenit. Krylia Sovetov's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.43 for Zenit.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Krylia Sovetov at home · Zenit away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Krylia Sovetov 11, Zenit 11.
Krylia Sovetov score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Zenit have let in 2 there.
Zenit score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Krylia Sovetov have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Krylia Sovetov
- vs FC Orenburg8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at FC Rostov20 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Dynamo29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala4 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Zenit
- vs FC Rostov8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 63%
- at Rubin21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- at CSKA Moscow28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- vs Baltika5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.