Charlotte
vs
Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Charlotte 2–1 Orlando City SC
The model makes it 51% Charlotte, 22% draw, 27% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.96, 4.55 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Charlotte 2.42, Orlando City SC 1.63.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Charlotte are 5th on 46 points from 29 games; Orlando City SC are 7th on 38 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Charlotte have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Columbus Crew.
- Orlando City SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Toronto FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Orlando City SC 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Orlando City SC 4–1 Charlotte.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlotte at 51% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
Charlotte
- L1-3away to Columbus Crew14 October 2026
- W3-2FC Dallas10 October 2026
- L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
- W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
Orlando City SC
- D3-3away to Toronto FC14 October 2026
- W3-2Columbus Crew10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
What these results say
- Charlotte conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Charlotte | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 69 | -15 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Charlotte
Chance to finish in the top four · 34% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
- 22 April 2026Orlando City SC 4–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2025Charlotte 2–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 14 May 2025Orlando City SC 3–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 9 November 2024Orlando City SC 1–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 1 November 2024Charlotte 0–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 27 October 2024Orlando City SC 2–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Charlotte and Orlando City SC
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno123
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda142
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Charlotte carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.5 for Orlando City SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.42 goals for Charlotte and 1.63 for Orlando City SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charlotte rate 0.75 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orlando City SC rate 0.84 and 1.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charlotte the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Charlotte against 1.63 for Orlando City SC. Charlotte's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.76 for Orlando City SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Charlotte at home · Orlando City SC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Charlotte 29, Orlando City SC 29.
Charlotte score most often in the 16–30 minute window (11 goals); Orlando City SC have let in 12 there.
Orlando City SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Charlotte have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Charlotte
- at Inter Miami7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 22%
Orlando City SC
- vs New England Revolution7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.