FC Cincinnati
vs
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: FC Cincinnati 1–2 Philadelphia Union
The model makes it 31% FC Cincinnati, 22% draw, 47% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (7%).
Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 1.97, Philadelphia Union 2.52.
Both teams to score: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Philadelphia Union: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Cincinnati are 9th on 36 points from 28 games; Philadelphia Union are 6th on 45 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- FC Cincinnati have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to New England Revolution.
- Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Chicago Fire.
- Last 6 meetings: Philadelphia Union 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC Cincinnati.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 47% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
FC Cincinnati
- L2-3New England Revolution14 October 2026
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
- D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
Philadelphia Union
- W3-1away to Chicago Fire15 October 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 October 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Cincinnati scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 60 | 68 | -8 | 36 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Cincinnati
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
Philadelphia Union
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
- 9 September 2026Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 30 August 2025FC Cincinnati 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 7 February 2025FC Cincinnati 4–1 Philadelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs
- 20 October 2024Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 13 August 2024FC Cincinnati 2–4 Philadelphia UnionLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey173
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski182
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Cincinnati carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.7 for Philadelphia Union. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for FC Cincinnati and 2.52 for Philadelphia Union. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Cincinnati rate 0.85 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Philadelphia Union rate 0.92 and 1.26.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for FC Cincinnati against 2.52 for Philadelphia Union. FC Cincinnati's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.26 for Philadelphia Union.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Cincinnati at home · Philadelphia Union away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: FC Cincinnati 28, Philadelphia Union 29.
FC Cincinnati score most often in the 76–90 minute window (22 goals); Philadelphia Union have let in 11 there.
Philadelphia Union score most often in the 61–75 minute window (16 goals); FC Cincinnati have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
FC Cincinnati
- vs Nashville SC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 23%
Philadelphia Union
- vs Toronto FC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.