Regular Season - 15 · 28 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais Challenge League prediction

Our model says: Neuchatel Xamax FC 2–0 Stade Nyonnais

The model makes it 59% Neuchatel Xamax FC, 24% draw, 17% Stade Nyonnais — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1.94, Stade Nyonnais 0.80.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Neuchatel Xamax FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Neuchatel Xamax FC's rating is built from 49 Challenge League matches and Stade Nyonnais's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Neuchatel Xamax FC are 5th on 17 points from 13 games; Stade Nyonnais are bottom on 8 points from 13 games — Challenge League.
  • Neuchatel Xamax FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Yverdon Sport.
  • Stade Nyonnais have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat at home to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
  • Last 6 meetings: Neuchatel Xamax FC 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 11 September 2026, ended Stade Nyonnais 1–3 Neuchatel Xamax FC.

More Challenge League predictions

All Challenge League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais

48%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Neuchatel Xamax FC win Draw Stade Nyonnais win
  1. 2–012%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 1–111%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 3–08%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Neuchatel Xamax FC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Neuchatel Xamax FC at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Challenge League

  • D0-0away to Yverdon Sport8 November 2026
  • L1-3FC Aarau30 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy23 October 2026
  • W3-0FC Winterthur9 October 2026
  • L0-3Rapperswil18 September 2026

Stade Nyonnais

Challenge League

  • L1-5Stade Lausanne-Ouchy6 November 2026
  • W4-1away to Rapperswil30 October 2026
  • L0-4away to FC Winterthur23 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Aarau9 October 2026
  • L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026

What these results say

  • Neuchatel Xamax FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Stade Nyonnais conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Stade Nyonnais had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Neuchatel Xamax FC135261620-417
10Stade Nyonnais132291334-218

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today

Win 41%
Draw 24%
Defeat 17%

Stade Nyonnais

Chance to finish in the bottom one · 88% today

Win 72%
Draw 86%
Defeat 92%

From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais

  • 11 September 2026Stade Nyonnais 1–3 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
  • 10 April 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 4–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 6 March 2026Stade Nyonnais 0–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
  • 19 December 2025Stade Nyonnais 1–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
  • 2 December 2025Stade Nyonnais 1–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCSchweizer Cup
  • 25 July 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Neuchatel Xamax FC Stade Nyonnais
0.42 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.33
2.01 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.84
1.94 Model expected goals (this match) 0.80

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Neuchatel Xamax FC the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Neuchatel Xamax FC against 0.80 for Stade Nyonnais. Neuchatel Xamax FC's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/2.84 for Stade Nyonnais.

How the model reaches 59% for Neuchatel Xamax FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Neuchatel Xamax FC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Neuchatel Xamax FC's ratings add 8 points and Stade Nyonnais's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 59%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Neuchatel Xamax FC's ratings51%+8
  5. Stade Nyonnais's ratings59%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Neuchatel Xamax FCStade Nyonnais
13Matches13
5W 2D 6LRecord2W 2D 9L
16 1.2 per gameGoals scored13 1.0 per game
20 1.5 per gameGoals conceded34 2.6 per game
4 of 13Clean sheets1 of 13
4 of 13Failed to score5 of 13
3 of 3Penalties scored2 of 2
25 1.9 per gameYellow cards29 2.2 per game
1Red cards2
4-2-3-1 1×Usual shape4-1-4-1 1×

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home · Stade Nyonnais away

6Played7
2W 0D 4LRecord1W 0D 6L
9–12Goals for – against6–21
1 of 6Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Challenge League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Challenge League matches this season: Neuchatel Xamax FC 13, Stade Nyonnais 13.

Neuchatel Xamax FC scored 235223
Stade Nyonnais conceded 3577310

Neuchatel Xamax FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Stade Nyonnais have let in 7 there.

Stade Nyonnais scored 010613
Neuchatel Xamax FC conceded 352153

Stade Nyonnais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Neuchatel Xamax FC have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Neuchatel Xamax FC

  • at Rapperswil6 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 33%
  • vs FC WIL 190013 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 45%
  • at SC Kriens19 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%

Stade Nyonnais

  • vs SC Kriens4 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
  • at Étoile Carouge11 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 18%
  • vs Yverdon Sport18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 20%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.