League Phase - 5 · 23 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

Al-Ittihad vs Pakhtakor AFC Champions League Elite prediction

Alinma Stadium, Jeddah

Our model says: Al-Ittihad 3–0 Pakhtakor

The model makes it 78% Al-Ittihad, 14% draw, 8% Pakhtakor — fair odds of 1.28, 7.14 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Al-Ittihad 3.09, Pakhtakor 0.72.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Al-Ittihad are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Al-Ittihad are 10th on 4 points from 4 games; Pakhtakor are 14th on 2 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
  • Al-Ittihad have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Al Ain.
  • Pakhtakor have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 2-6 defeat at home to Al-Nassr.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Al-Ittihad vs Pakhtakor

49%
Both teams to score
73%
Over 2.5 goals
27%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Al-Ittihad win Draw Pakhtakor win
  1. 3–011%
  2. 2–011%
  3. 4–08%
  4. 3–18%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 4–16%

Scores read Al-Ittihad first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Ittihad at 78%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Al-Ittihad vs Pakhtakor

Al-Ittihad

AFC Champions League Elite

  • L1-4Al Ain2 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Neftchi Fergana26 October 2026
  • L1-2Shabab Al Ahli Dubai13 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al Shamal14 September 2026

Pakhtakor

AFC Champions League Elite

  • L2-6Al-Nassr2 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Al Quwa Al Jawiya26 October 2026
  • D1-1Al-Qadisiyah FC12 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Ahli Jeddah14 September 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Ittihad scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Ittihad conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Al-Ittihad.
  • Pakhtakor did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Pakhtakor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Pakhtakor scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Al-Ittihad411258-34
14Pakhtakor402249-52

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Al-Ittihad Pakhtakor
0.88 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.5
1.13 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.94
3.09 Model expected goals (this match) 0.72

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Ittihad the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.09 expected goals for Al-Ittihad against 0.72 for Pakhtakor. Al-Ittihad's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.94 for Pakhtakor.

How the model reaches 78% for Al-Ittihad to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Ittihad to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Ittihad's ratings add 17 points and Pakhtakor's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 78%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage47%+10
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%−1
  4. Al-Ittihad's ratings63%+17
  5. Pakhtakor's ratings78%+15

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Al-Ittihad

  • vs Al-Ahli Jeddah26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 37%
  • at Al Riyadh3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 57%
  • at Al-Wasl FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%

Pakhtakor

  • vs Tractor Sazi7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
  • vs Esteghlal FC8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 23%
  • at Al-Hilal15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 3%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.