NEC Nijmegen
vs
Groningen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Groningen
The model makes it 41% NEC Nijmegen, 25% draw, 34% Groningen — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.75, Groningen 1.55.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 9 points from 8 games; Groningen are 6th on 14 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- NEC Nijmegen have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ajax.
- Groningen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to Excelsior.
- Last 6 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Groningen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEC Nijmegen at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
- D1-1away to Ajax10 October 2026
- D1-1GO Ahead Eagles20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cambuur12 September 2026
- D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
- L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
Groningen
- W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026
- W3-0PEC Zwolle18 September 2026
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
- D2-2Twente6 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
What these results say
- NEC Nijmegen did not win any of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Groningen
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
- 10 May 2026Groningen 2–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 9 November 2025NEC Nijmegen 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 19 July 2025Groningen 1–2 NEC NijmegenFriendlies Clubs
- 8 February 2025Groningen 2–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 3 November 2024NEC Nijmegen 6–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 25 April 2023Groningen 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
GoalsAssists
- T. Chery42
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- T. van Bergen52
- B. Willumsson50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NEC Nijmegen carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.79 for Groningen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.55 for Groningen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEC Nijmegen rate 0.90 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Groningen rate 0.94 and 1.06.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Groningen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NEC Nijmegen a 0% chance of the title and Groningen 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.55 for Groningen. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.06 for Groningen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NEC Nijmegen at home · Groningen away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NEC NijmegenGroningen
NEC Nijmegen are 11th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Groningen are 6th after 8 (between 2nd and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: NEC Nijmegen 8, Groningen 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
NEC Nijmegen
- at Heerenveen31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
- vs Omonia Nicosia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Groningen
- vs Sparta Rotterdam1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 60%
- at AZ Alkmaar8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 25%
- vs Heerenveen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 47%
- vs Willem II27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 71%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.