Naftan
vs
Dinamo Minsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Naftan 0–2 Dinamo Minsk
The model makes it 12% Naftan, 18% draw, 70% Dinamo Minsk — fair odds of 8.33, 5.56 and 1.43.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Naftan 0.88, Dinamo Minsk 2.75.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Dinamo Minsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Naftan's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and Dinamo Minsk's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Naftan are bottom on 17 points from 28 games; Dinamo Minsk are 3rd on 61 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- Naftan are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to ML Vitebsk.
- Dinamo Minsk have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to FC Vitebsk.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Minsk 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Dinamo Minsk 5–1 Naftan.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Naftan vs Dinamo Minsk
Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Minsk at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Naftan vs Dinamo Minsk
Naftan
Premier League
- L0-5ML Vitebsk7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Baranovichi31 October 2026
- L0-6FC Isloch Minsk R.24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Torpedo Zhodino19 October 2026
- W4-1Belshina10 October 2026
Dinamo Minsk
Premier League
- W1-0away to FC Vitebsk7 November 2026
- L0-1Neman1 November 2026
- W3-2away to Belshina28 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Gomel24 October 2026
- W2-0Arsenal Dzerzhinsk19 October 2026
What these results say
- Naftan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Naftan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Naftan failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Minsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Minsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Naftan | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 70 | -46 | 17 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 23 | +28 | 61 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Minsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 17% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Naftan vs Dinamo Minsk
- 2 September 2026Dinamo Minsk 5–1 NaftanPremier League
- 18 February 2026Dinamo Minsk 1–1 NaftanFriendlies Clubs
- 16 November 2025Dinamo Minsk 2–0 NaftanFriendlies Clubs
- 25 October 2025Naftan 1–3 Dinamo MinskPremier League
- 31 May 2025Dinamo Minsk 1–0 NaftanPremier League
- 13 October 2024Naftan 1–2 Dinamo MinskPremier League
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Naftan a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Minsk 16.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Minsk the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Naftan against 2.75 for Dinamo Minsk. Naftan's attack/defence rating is 0.4/3.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.36 for Dinamo Minsk.
How the model reaches 70% for Dinamo Minsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Minsk to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Naftan's ratings add 21 points and Dinamo Minsk's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Naftan's ratings50%+21
- Dinamo Minsk's ratings70%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Naftan at home · Dinamo Minsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Naftan 28, Dinamo Minsk 28.
Dinamo Minsk score most often in the 16–30 minute window (12 goals); Naftan have let in 18 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.