Belshina
vs
ML Vitebsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Belshina 0–2 ML Vitebsk
The model makes it 14% Belshina, 20% draw, 66% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 7.14, 5.00 and 1.52.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Belshina 0.87, ML Vitebsk 2.48.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: ML Vitebsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Belshina's rating is built from 30 Belarusian Premier League matches and ML Vitebsk's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Belshina are 13th on 24 points from 28 games; ML Vitebsk are top on 62 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- Belshina are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to FC Isloch Minsk R..
- ML Vitebsk have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Naftan.
- Last 6 meetings: ML Vitebsk 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended ML Vitebsk 1–1 Belshina.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Belshina vs ML Vitebsk
Has the model earned this number?
ML Vitebsk at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Belshina vs ML Vitebsk
Belshina
Premier League
- L2-3FC Isloch Minsk R.7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Torpedo Zhodino1 November 2026
- L2-3Dinamo Minsk28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bate Borisov24 October 2026
- L2-4Slavia Mozyr19 October 2026
ML Vitebsk
Premier League
- W5-0away to Naftan7 November 2026
- W4-0FC Minsk1 November 2026
- L0-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.28 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Vitebsk24 October 2026
- W1-0Neman18 October 2026
What these results say
- Belshina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Belshina | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 24 |
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 61 | 19 | +42 | 62 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Belshina
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 75% today
ML Vitebsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 68% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Belshina vs ML Vitebsk
- 2 September 2026ML Vitebsk 1–1 BelshinaPremier League
- 28 January 2026ML Vitebsk 2–0 BelshinaFriendlies Clubs
- 8 March 2025ML Vitebsk 6–0 BelshinaCoppa
- 2 March 2025Belshina 1–2 ML VitebskCoppa
- 20 September 2024Belshina 2–4 ML Vitebsk1. Division
- 26 May 2024ML Vitebsk 1–1 Belshina1. Division
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Belshina a 0% chance of the title and ML Vitebsk 67.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ML Vitebsk the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Belshina against 2.48 for ML Vitebsk. Belshina's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.16 for ML Vitebsk.
How the model reaches 66% for ML Vitebsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ML Vitebsk to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Belshina's ratings add 19 points and ML Vitebsk's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 66%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Belshina's ratings48%+19
- ML Vitebsk's ratings66%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Belshina at home · ML Vitebsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Belshina 28, ML Vitebsk 28.
Belshina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); ML Vitebsk have let in 2 there.
ML Vitebsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Belshina have let in 21 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.